· · · ·

Trade War Oct 28, 2026: US-Canada Tariff Talks, China Port Fee Pause

Trade war news: US and Canada push steel and auto tariff talks, Washington proposes pausing China port fees, and India and Mexico open trade talks.

ByPeter
Trade war map for Oct 28, 2026 marking Washington, Ottawa, Mexico and Beijing, with the main shipping chokepoints
Places named in this report, Oct 23–28, 2026; numbers match the footnotes, and the Mexico mark is approximate. Markers show where decisions or statements were made. Map: Peter's World; data: Natural Earth

Trade War Update

October 28, 2026 · imbalances and dependence

  • Up to 50%US Section 232 tariff on Canadian steel, under discussion [1]
  • 25%US Section 232 tariff on Canadian autos, under discussion [1]
  • 50%Section 338 duty on listed Canadian products [2]
  • $7.83 billionIndia-Mexico goods trade, fiscal 2025-26 [5]

Key Takeaways: 4 things to know

  1. Canada could win relief from US steel and auto tariffs under a deal in progress, Reuters reported, citing six sources in both countries (see US-Canada Talks).
  2. New White House product lists for the 50% Section 338 duties on Canadian goods take effect on October 30, removing some products and adding others (see Canada’s Tariff Lists Change).
  3. The US Trade Representative proposed keeping fees on China-linked ships suspended for two more months, through January 9, 2027, to allow further talks with Beijing (see China Port Fee Pause).
  4. India and Mexico launched talks on a preferential trade pact as Mexican duties of up to 50% hit goods from countries without trade deals (see India and Mexico Open Talks).
Report detailsTrade War Update, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (Trade Lenses v2), light day · Data cutoff Oct 28, ~12:00 PM ETDetails
  • Publisher: Peter’s World
  • Edition: Trade War Update, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (Trade Lenses v2), light day
  • Coverage window: Oct 27, 2026, ~7:30 AM ET to Oct 28, 2026, ~12:00 PM ET, plus Oct 23 and Oct 26 US actions not covered in earlier editions
  • Data cutoff: Oct 28, 2026, ~12:00 PM ET
  • Times: ET unless stated
  • Sources: the White House, the Federal Register and the Trade Representative’s office first, then wire reports
Trade war map for Oct 28, 2026 marking Washington, Ottawa, Mexico and Beijing, with the main shipping chokepoints
Places named in this report, Oct 23–28, 2026; numbers match the footnotes, and the Mexico mark is approximate. Markers show where decisions or statements were made. Map: Peter’s World; data: Natural Earth

Key Numbers

Key figures by industry

FigureValueSource
Steel and manufacturing
US Section 232 tariff on Canadian steel, under discussionUp to 50%[1]
US Section 232 tariff on Canadian autos, under discussion25%[1]
Section 338 duty on listed Canadian products50%[2]
Overall trade balances
India-Mexico goods trade, fiscal 2025-26$7.83 billion[5]
India’s trade surplus with Mexico, fiscal 2025-26$3.62 billion[5]
Tariffs and refunds
Mexican tariff lines with higher duties for non-deal partners since January 1About 1,463[5]

This trade war news update for October 28, 2026, covers reported US-Canada work on a steel and auto tariff deal, new Canadian product lists under the Section 338 duties, a proposed two-month extension of the pause on China port fees and new India-Mexico trade talks.[1] It follows the October 27 trade war update; see the War Room and the Trade War News Hub.

US-Canada Talks

The United States and Canada are working on a deal to ease US tariffs on Canadian steel and autos, two US and four Canadian sources told Reuters on October 27.[1] The talks focus on duties imposed under Section 232 of US trade law, including a tariff of up to 50% on Canadian steel and a 25% tariff on autos.[1] Relations soured after trade talks broke down in August, and Reuters reported that Republican candidates in border states have called for an end to the trade war with Canada before next week’s midterm elections.[1] Neither government has announced a concession.

Canada’s Tariff Lists Change

A separate set of US duties on Canada changes scope this week. President Trump signed a proclamation on October 23 under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 that removes products such as plywood sheets, some paper products, certain machinery, refrigeration equipment and some packing crates from the 50% duty and adds others, effective October 30.[2] The White House said the duties apply whether or not a good qualifies under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and on top of any Section 232 tariffs.[2] It said Canada had imposed retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of US exports after walking away from a near-final deal this summer.[2]

China Port Fee Pause

On the China front, the US Trade Representative’s office proposed in the Federal Register on October 26 to suspend its Section 301 maritime action for two more months, from November 10, 2026, through January 9, 2027.[3] During that period no party would owe the port fees on China-linked ships or the related equipment duties, and comments are due by 5:00 PM ET on October 30.[3] The Small Business Administration’s advocacy office urged small firms to comment under docket USTR-2026-0694.[4] Lawyers at Holland & Knight noted the proposed pause is much shorter than the original one-year suspension, so the fees could return after January 9.[6]

India and Mexico Open Talks

Outside the US fight, India and Mexico signed terms of reference on October 28 to launch talks on a preferential trade agreement, India’s commerce ministry said.[5] The talks cover market access for goods, rules of origin, customs, dispute settlement and trade remedies.[5] Mexico has raised import duties to between about 5% and 50% on goods from countries without trade agreements, including India, China and South Korea, since January 1.[5]

Domestic Affairs

United States

Tariffs on Canadian goods have become a campaign issue, with border-state Republican candidates calling for an end to the dispute, Reuters reported.[1] The Section 338 list changes followed a push by Senator Susan Collins for exemptions on products important to Maine, CNBC reported on October 23.[7]

Canada

No new Canadian government statement on the talks was found in the window.

Statements by Government Officials on Trade

United States statements come first; statements by other governments are secondary and labeled. Quotes are verbatim and attributed.

United States

Quotes: United States
DateSpeakerRole/OrgQuoteContext/TopicSource
2026-10-23White HouseFact sheet“Over the past year and a half, only two countries have chosen to retaliate against President Trump’s tariffs rather than negotiate a deal with the United States: The People’s Republic of China and Canada.”Section 338 duties on Canadawhitehouse.gov [2]
2026-10-26Office of the US Trade RepresentativeFederal Register notice“The United States is continuing to engage with China with the goal of obtaining the elimination of the acts, policies, and practices at issue in the investigation.”China port fee pausefederalregister.gov [3]

Other governments (secondary)

India’s commerce ministry said the pact could expand trade, investment and supply-chain ties with Mexico, according to the Press Trust of India.[5]

What to Watch

  • Whether the US and Canada announce any steel or auto tariff relief before the midterm elections.[1]
  • Whether the Trade Representative finalizes the port fee pause after comments close on October 30.[3]
  • How the new Section 338 product lists affect Canadian shipments entered from October 30.[2]

Trade War lenses

Analysis

Deals & Agreements

A US-Canada deal is still unannounced, but the talks have moved to the Section 232 steel and auto duties that hurt Canada most.[1] India and Mexico have only signed terms of reference, so any tariff cuts are months away.[5]

Imbalances & Impact

The India-Mexico figures show why New Delhi wants a deal: India ran a surplus with Mexico, and Mexico’s new duties now hit Indian cars and textiles.[5] The Canadian list swap changes which goods pay, not the 50% rate itself.[2]

Chokepoints & Dependencies

The port fee pause keeps costs down for shipping lines that use Chinese-built or Chinese-operated vessels, but only into January.[3] That short horizon leaves carriers planning around a possible return of the fees.[6]

Negotiating Power

Washington is keeping pressure on Ottawa through the Section 338 duties while talking about relief on steel and autos.[2] With China, the two-month pause signals that Washington wants to keep talks alive without giving up the threat of fees.[3]

Policy & Economics

The White House framed the Canada changes as better serving the public interest while keeping the duties in place.[2] Exemptions for products important to Maine show how domestic pressure shapes the lists.[7]

Bloc Competition

India’s push into Mexico follows Mexico’s higher duties on Asian suppliers without trade deals, which include China.[5] A pact would give Indian firms a route into a market tied closely to North American supply chains.[5]

Business & Markets

Importers of Canadian goods must check each tariff line, because entry on or after October 30 decides which list applies.[2] Ship operators gain short-term certainty on port fees but no answer for 2027.[6]

Analysis by Peter’s World using the Trade War lenses. Numbered notes link to the footnotes at the end of this report. Scores, where shown, are judgments, not measurements.

Additional sources

Footnotes

  1. [1] Reuters via The Japan Times, “U.S. and Canada working on deal to ease steel and auto tariffs, sources say”, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/10/27/us-canada-tariffs-talks/. Published: Oct 27, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-28.
  2. [2] The White House, “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Further Modifies Canadian Products Subject to Tariffs Under Section 338”, https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/10/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-further-modifies-canadian-products-subject-to-tariffs-under-section-338/. Published: Oct 23, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-28.
  3. [3] Federal Register, “Request for Comments on Further Suspension of Section 301 Action: China’s Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance”, https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/10/26/2026-21755/request-for-comments-on-further-suspension-of-section-301-action-chinas-targeting-of-the-maritime. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-28.
  4. [5] Press Trust of India via Reporter World News, “India, Mexico begin trade pact talks amid tariff pressures”, https://www.reporterworldnews.com/news/business/2026/10/28/india-mexico-preferential-trade-agreement-talks. Published: Oct 28, 2026, 8:43 AM ET. Retrieved: 2026-10-28.
  5. [6] Holland & Knight, “USTR Proposes 2-Month Extension of Suspension of Section 301 Maritime Actions Against China”, https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/10/ustr-proposes-2-month-extension-of-suspension-of-section-301. Published: Oct 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-28.
  6. [7] CNBC, “Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but ‘replacing’ them with other products”, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/trump-tariffs-canada-susan-collins.html. Published: Oct 23, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-28. Background, before the window.
Show 2 more sources
  1. [4] US Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy, “USTR Seeks Comments on Further Suspension of Section 301 Action on China’s Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors”, https://advocacy.sba.gov/2026/10/27/ustr-seeks-comments-on-further-suspension-of-section-301-action-on-chinas-maritime-logistics-and-shipbuilding-sectors/. Published: Oct 27, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-28.
  2. [8] Peter’s World, “Trade Lenses framework”, https://petersworld.org/trade-lenses-framework/. Retrieved: 2026-10-28.

Sources

Related coverage

More from the War Room today

Recommended articles