Serbia Election 2026: Vučić Concedes as Students’ List Wins Majority
The Serbia election gave the Students’ List 140 of 250 seats in preliminary results as Vučić conceded. What it means for Russia’s oil stake and US ties.
BELGRADE, Oct. 27, 2026 — Serbia’s governing party has lost its parliamentary majority, ending a run in power that began in 2012. Preliminary results from the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) give the Students’ List a clear majority in the 250-seat National Assembly after the Oct. 25 snap election. Aleksandar Vučić, who resigned as president on Sept. 27 and headed his party’s list, conceded on election night: “We don’t have complete results yet, but it is clear we have lost these elections,” BBC News in Serbian reported.
Beyond the domestic upheaval, the result lands in the middle of three external files: Serbia’s ties with Russia, a U.S. sanctions deadline on its main oil company, and a new strategic partnership with Washington.
Serbia election results: what the commission reported
The table uses the latest RIK count, from 8,187 polling stations as of 8 p.m. on Oct. 26, published by the electoral commission and the Serbian government. That covers 97.56% of polling stations, so totals may still shift slightly.
| List | Votes | Share | Seats (preliminary) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Students’ List | 2,267,615 | 52.71% | 140 |
| Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia | 1,685,022 | 39.17% | 104 |
| Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability (SPS) | 93,280 | 2.17% | 0 |
| Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians | 34,762 | 0.81% | 2 |
| Albanian Coalition | 27,670 | 0.64% | 2 |
| Rasim Ljajić – Human | 20,544 | 0.48% | 1 |
| SDA of Sandžak | 12,399 | 0.29% | 1 |
| Total seats | 250 |
A majority requires 126 seats. RIK President Vladimir Dimitrijević said 4,301,985 voters had cast ballots in the material processed so far. Earlier counts differed slightly: with 8,077 of 8,392 stations reporting, Al Jazeera reported 52.54% for the Students’ List and 39.29% for Vučić’s list, with 103 seats for the latter. Reported turnout ranges from 68.78%, per RIK data cited by Al Jazeera, to “nearly 70%,” per BBC News in Serbian. Four national-minority lists won seats with under 1% of the vote each, according to the preliminary results. For the first time, the Socialist Party of Serbia will have no seats in parliament, BBC News in Serbian reported.
How Serbia got here: a timeline
- November 2024: A canopy collapse in Novi Sad kills 16 people (Al Jazeera).
- Jan. 10, 2025: The U.S. Treasury sanctions Gazprom Neft and designates its Serbian subsidiary, NIS (Treasury).
- July 17, 2026: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Marko Đurić open the first U.S.-Serbia Strategic Dialogue (U.S. Embassy Belgrade).
- Sept. 27, 2026: Vučić resigns as president; Ana Brnabić later serves as acting president (BBC, Al Jazeera).
- Oct. 25, 2026: Snap parliamentary election.
- Oct. 30, 2026: NIS’s OFAC operating license and MOL’s negotiating license both expire (Srpske Novine).
- Dec. 27, 2026: Deadline for the presidential election (BBC).
Al Jazeera reports that the new assembly must convene within 30 days of final results and that a government must be formed within 90 days after that. Ilija Srdanović, a cardiologist and professor of medicine in Novi Sad, is the list’s likely nominee for prime minister, according to the same report.
The Russia file: NIS and the Oct. 30 deadline
Serbia’s oil refiner is the most immediate test. The Treasury Department designated NIS a.d. Novi Sad in January 2025 as “a Serbia-based Gazprom Neft subsidiary.” NIS has since operated under specific OFAC licenses. NIS said on Sept. 30 that its latest license runs to Oct. 30, and Srpske Novine reported that the company has applied for another.
The buyer in talks is Hungary’s MOL. According to Srpske Novine, First Deputy Prime Minister Siniša Mali said on Oct. 20 that an agreement had been reached with the Russian side and MOL, pending antitrust approvals; MOL had not confirmed a signed purchase contract. The same outlet cites ownership figures of 44.85% for Gazprom Neft, 11.3% held through a company called Intelligence and 29.87% for the Serbian state.
The U.S. file: a partnership built with the old government
The State Department’s response was warm. A spokesperson said, as relayed by Kosovo Online, that the U.S. looks forward to “continuing and further advancing our partnership with the newly elected members of Serbia’s National Assembly,” building on the Strategic Dialogue. The joint statement on that dialogue lists an energy memorandum, the Djerdap III hydropower project, a $50 million Export-Import Bank guarantee for Telekom Srbija’s 5G network “using trusted suppliers,” and a Serbian request to buy U.S. defense articles. It also notes 20 years of cooperation between the Ohio National Guard and the Serbian Armed Forces.
Analysis: Peter’s World’s view
Analysis: The new majority inherits agreements it did not negotiate. Most of Serbia’s recent turn toward Washington, from the Strategic Dialogue to the energy memorandum, was signed by Vučić’s government. The State Department’s message points to continuity: it names the Strategic Dialogue and is addressed to the new assembly, not to a party.
The NIS deadline is the first real decision. Whatever OFAC does by Oct. 30 will be negotiated with caretaker ministers while the new majority waits for final results and an assembly. That gap matters: a license extension, a completed MOL sale or a lapse would each shape Serbia’s fuel supply before the new government takes office.
Readers should be cautious about predicting a sharp foreign-policy swing. The Students’ List has made a pledge to improve relations with neighbors, according to Al Jazeera, but its detailed positions on Russia, Kosovo and EU accession are not yet set out in a government program. BBC News in Serbian reports that Washington, Moscow, Kyiv and Brussels all sent congratulations, so no major capital has yet treated the result as hostile. What will reveal direction are concrete acts: the choice of foreign and energy ministers, the stance on NIS, and whether Serbia keeps its defense purchase request with the United States.
What to watch
- OFAC’s decision on NIS’s license before it expires on Oct. 30.
- Final RIK results and the date the new assembly convenes.
- The prime minister nominee and the first cabinet list.
- The calendar for the presidential election, due by Dec. 27.
For context on Russia’s regional leverage and the sanctions debate, see our Russia-Ukraine news hub and the Geopolitics hub.
Sources
- Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia: 70th session, preliminary results (Oct. 26, 2026)
- U.S. Treasury: Sanctions on Gazprom Neft and NIS (Jan. 10, 2025)
- U.S. Embassy in Serbia: Joint Statement on the U.S.-Serbia Strategic Dialogue (July 20, 2026)
- BBC News in Serbian: Election results and Vučić’s concession
Additional sources
- Serbian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Đurić and Rubio launch the Strategic Dialogue (July 17, 2026)
- Srpske Novine: NIS asks OFAC for a new license (Oct. 24, 2026)
- Al Jazeera: Serbia after Vučić — who will be PM and when will a government be formed?
