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Business Report Oct 27, 2026: US Oil Slips Under $100 on Iran Terms

US crude oil falls below $100 as Iran’s leaders discuss terms to end the war, diesel hits $6.35 despite a Russian fuel waiver and Boeing defense sales jump 15%.

ByPeter
Oil tanker crossing a calm strait between desert mountains at golden hour, a gray warship small on the horizon
AI-generated illustration

Good evening, and welcome to the Peter’s World business report for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. Tonight, American crude slips back under $100 a barrel as Iran’s leadership talks openly about terms to end the war, diesel keeps climbing even as a sanctions waiver lets Russian fuel flow, Boeing’s defense business carries a rough quarter, and the Federal Reserve opens a meeting with long-term borrowing costs near 5%.

Iran Talks Terms, and Crude Breaks Below $100

Crude oil fell for a second straight session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled down 1.8% at $99.90 a barrel, and Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 1.7% to $113.88, CNBC reported.

The trigger came from Tehran. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met his top national security official, Mohsen Rezaei, to discuss Iran’s conditions for ending the war with the United States, according to an English-language post on the supreme leader’s social media account cited by CNBC. The post said the current state of “neither war nor peace” needs to end, and it spoke of “safeguarding national and regional security by maintaining control” over the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei called Monday’s talks with Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials a step toward regional security cooperation, according to the state outlet Tasnim. In Washington, President Trump told Fox News on Sunday that he was nearing a decision on whether to strike a deal with Iran or step up military operations. Our Iran war update follows the diplomacy.

At least one major bank does not see a quick return to prewar prices. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo wrote on Tuesday that Brent is likely to stay near $110 through year-end, that government releases from strategic stockpiles are largely over, and that commercial inventories will fall faster in the coming months if security in the Gulf does not improve.

Diesel Climbs Despite a Russian Sanctions Waiver

At the pump, the war’s costs are splitting in two directions. Regular gasoline averaged $4.269 a gallon nationwide on October 26, down 1.5 cents from the week before, but on-highway diesel rose 7.6 cents to $6.352, which is $2.63 more than a year ago, according to the Energy Information Administration. Diesel powers trucks, trains and farm machinery, so that gap reaches well beyond the commuter.

Washington’s answer has been to loosen sanctions on Russian fuel. On October 9, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135, which authorizes the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the United States, through April 7, 2027. The license does not allow any debit to U.S. bank accounts held by Russia’s central bank, its National Wealth Fund or its Ministry of Finance.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC on Tuesday that more Russian diesel could “quite possibly” follow under the waiver, depending on Moscow’s conduct. “It’s trying to put a carrot in front of Russia,” he said. The Trump-Putin arrangement covers 800,000 metric tons in October and November, followed by another million tons. CNBC calculated that the first 300,000-ton tranche equals about 75,000 barrels a day over a month, a small amount against world demand of roughly 28 million barrels a day. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticized the deal, and a bipartisan group of senators called it “a gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our Allies.” Our Ukraine war update covers the fighting behind the bargaining.

Analysis: The waiver turns energy supply into a bargaining chip in the Ukraine talks. Because the volumes are modest, its main effect is diplomatic; the official price data show diesel still rising after the license took effect.

Boeing’s Defense Unit Carries a Rough Quarter

A major corporate story came from one of the Pentagon’s largest contractors. Boeing shares fell 10% after Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg said the company now targets building 52 of its 737 Max jets a month in the second half of 2027, up from about 47 today, because wing production is running slower than planned, CNBC reported. “I know everybody wants us to go faster, but we’re going to do it right,” Ortberg told the network.

The military side told a different story. Defense revenue jumped 15% from a year earlier to $7.94 billion, while commercial airplane revenue slipped 3% to $10.72 billion and that unit posted a negative operating margin of 6.5%. Total revenue rose 4% to $24.19 billion, ahead of the $23.84 billion analysts expected, but the adjusted loss of 34 cents a share was wider than the 21-cent forecast, according to LSEG estimates cited by CNBC. The net loss narrowed to $116 million, from $5.34 billion a year earlier, when the company took a large charge on its 777X program. CNBC also noted that the Navy recently chose Boeing to develop its next-generation carrier fighter.

What it means: Wartime demand is now cushioning Boeing’s commercial problems, which ties part of the company’s recovery to defense budgets as much as to airline orders.

The Fed Meets as Long-Term Yields Hover Near 5%

From the factory floor to the central bank: the Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on Tuesday, according to the Federal Reserve’s calendar, with a decision due at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool put the odds of holding the target range at 3.75% to 4% at roughly 92%, CNBC reported. The question is what Chairman Kevin Warsh signals next. Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote that Warsh “is likely to signal that recent inflation data reinforce expectations from the September meeting that further tightening will likely be needed over time.”

Long-term borrowing costs remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.99% on Tuesday, the 2-year at 4.70% and the 30-year at 5.30%, according to the Treasury Department’s daily yield curve.

Wall Street Leans on Chips; Brazil Weighs the Bill

Stocks rose despite Boeing’s slide. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 7,722.60, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.18% to 26,477.81, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 15.99 points to 52,377.57, CNBC reported. Chipmakers led after Broadcom said a group of banks would provide $63 billion to buy its chips and networking gear for lease to Anthropic; Broadcom rose 4% and AMD about 5%. Lower oil prices also helped. The U.S. Dollar Index stood near 102.3 late in the day, based on CNBC market data. After the bell, Robinhood fell almost 5% and NXP Semiconductors dropped 9%.

Overseas, Brazil absorbed the aftershock of Sunday’s election. The benchmark stock index fell 13.9% on Monday, its sharpest daily drop since the start of the pandemic, and the 10-year government bond yield jumped 2.46 percentage points, CNBC reported. Analysts at Signum Global Advisors and TS Lombard said they expect President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to offer early signs of fiscal restraint. The American Prospect’s Robert Kuttner offered a dissenting reading, arguing that the sell-off reflected speculators who had bid up stocks on a Bolsonaro win, and noting that Brazil’s economy has grown about 3% a year during Lula’s current term.

What to Watch Wednesday

After Wednesday’s Fed decision, Alphabet and Microsoft report results after the bell, opening the week’s Big Tech earnings. For yesterday’s look at the shrinking emergency oil reserve, see our Oct. 26 business report.

That is tonight’s look at the money behind the headlines. Thanks for listening.

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