Neptune Strikes on Su-34 Bases: Marinovka and Borisoglebsk
Ukraine says Neptune strikes hit Su-34 bombers at two Russian air bases in two weeks. We compare the claims with the evidence and the glide-bomb link.
KYIV, Oct. 30, 2026 — For the second time in two weeks, Ukraine says it has used Neptune cruise missiles to destroy Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers on the ground at an air base deep inside Russia. The Ukrainian Navy said on Thursday that a strike on Marinovka airfield near Oktyabrsky, in Russia’s Volgograd region, destroyed two Su-34s of the 11th Mixed Aviation Regiment, Interfax-Ukraine reported. On Oct. 15, Ukraine said a Neptune strike had hit six Su-34s at Borisoglebsk in the Voronezh region.
The Su-34 is one of the main Russian aircraft used to drop guided glide bombs on Ukrainian positions and front-line towns. This article compares the two Neptune strikes, setting out what each is claimed to have done, what evidence has been made public, and why the target choice matters.
The Marinovka strike
The Navy said the “Long Neptune” coastal missile system hit the base of the regiment, part of the 4th Mixed Aviation Division of Russia’s 4th Air and Air Defense Army. President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address that Ukraine “carried out two missile strikes, destroying two Russian Su-34s and hitting an Iskander launcher,” Ukrainska Pravda reported. In the same address he said Ukraine had intelligence that Russia was preparing new ballistic missile attacks, and added, “We need the capabilities to shoot down all this Russian evil.”
Censor.NET said NASA’s FIRMS satellite fire-monitoring system detected a fire at the airfield, citing the open-source project Exilenova+. The outlet also cited a Telegram channel, “Dosye Shpiona,” as saying two servicemen were killed and two wounded. That casualty claim has not been independently confirmed. According to the Kyiv Post, Marinovka lies about 400 kilometers from Ukraine and was also targeted in 2025.
The Borisoglebsk strike
The Borisoglebsk claim has been described in two ways by Ukrainian officials. The General Staff said all six Su-34M aircraft at the strike point were damaged “to varying degrees,” and Reuters said satellite imagery it verified showed destruction at the airfield, according to its report. Zelensky later said four of the jets were destroyed and two damaged, the Kyiv Independent reported. The base sits about 370 kilometers from the front line.
Claims against evidence
| Borisoglebsk (Oct. 15) | Marinovka (Oct. 29) | |
|---|---|---|
| Region | Voronezh | Volgograd |
| Distance | About 370 km from the front line | About 400 km from Ukraine |
| Weapon | Neptune | “Long Neptune” |
| Ukrainian claim | Six Su-34Ms hit: “damaged to varying degrees” (General Staff); four destroyed and two damaged (Zelensky) | Two Su-34s destroyed (Navy) |
| Independent evidence | Satellite imagery verified by Reuters shows destruction | Fire detection by NASA FIRMS, as reported by Exilenova+; no published imagery of wrecked aircraft |
| Russian official comment | None in the reports cited here | None in the reports cited here |
Taken at Ukraine’s own word, the two raids hit eight Su-34s, six of them destroyed. That total relies on Ukrainian figures and should be read as a claim, not a verified loss count.
A FIRMS detection is useful but limited. NASA says the system shows the location, extent and intensity of fires, with global data available within three hours of a satellite pass. It confirms that something burned at the site. It cannot show what burned.
Analysis: going after the bomb carriers
Ukraine’s choice of target follows the damage done by glide bombs. The Congressional Research Service notes that Russia has deployed “difficult-to-intercept glide bombs.” The Kyiv Post reported that three of the bombs struck an apartment building in Izium on Thursday, injuring at least 13 people. Because the bombs are hard to stop once released, the aircraft that carry them become the target, and the ground is where they are most exposed. The Kyiv Post puts the range of the Long Neptune at up to 1,000 kilometers, which brings more of Russia’s bomber bases within reach.
The cost exchange also favors Ukraine if the claims hold. The Kyiv Post estimates each Su-34 is worth about $50 million and says the jet can carry up to 8 tons of weapons. Every aircraft lost removes a bomb carrier from the front, not just a number from an inventory.
There are limits. Russia can respond by dispersing aircraft, building hardened shelters or basing them farther east. Two strikes in two weeks do not yet show a sustained campaign, and Ukraine’s own air defense gap remains. Zelensky’s request for more interceptors on the same evening shows that striking launch platforms is a complement to air defense, not a substitute.
What to watch
- Commercial satellite images of Marinovka that confirm or contradict the Navy’s claim.
- Any Russian move of Su-34 units to bases beyond Neptune range.
- A change in the number of glide bombs Ukraine reports each day, the clearest test of whether these strikes cut Russia’s output.
Sources
- Interfax-Ukraine: Navy says Neptune destroyed two Su-34s at Marinovka (Oct. 29, 2026)
- Kyiv Independent: Ukraine hits 6 Russian Su-34 jets with Neptune missile (Oct. 15, 2026)
- Congressional Research Service: Russian Military Performance and Outlook (IF12606, Feb. 4, 2026)
- NASA Earthdata: Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS)
Additional sources
- The Neptune missile is the same family that sank Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva, in April 2022, according to the Kyiv Independent.
