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Trump Says US Will Stop Israel Aid: What the $38B Deal Really Says

Trump says U.S. aid to Israel ends after 2026, but the $38 billion MOU runs to 2028. Our table and timeline show what Congress must do and who is affected.

ByPeter
Israeli Air Force pilot walking toward an F-35I Adir stealth fighter on a desert flight line
An Israeli Air Force pilot walks to an F-35I Adir before a Red Flag-Nellis 23-2 mission at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, March 15, 2023. Photo: U.S. Air Force / Airman 1st Class Trevor Bell, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 4, 2026 — President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the United States will stop paying roughly $4 billion a year in aid to Israel after this year, under what he called a deal with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “We’ve already agreed that by the end of this year we won’t be paying Israel,” Trump told Fox News’ “Fox & Friends” by phone, as polls opened for the midterm elections. “Now we’ll help Israel if they need it,” he added, and Israel would still be able to buy American weapons, Reuters reported.

The announcement collides with a written commitment that runs for almost two more years. By Wednesday morning, it also collided with a new political map: Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, AP projected. Congress, not the White House, writes the checks.

What Trump said, and what he did not

Trump said the deal was struck “months ago” and that Israel does not need the money. He gave no details on how the funding would stop. He also tied the move to domestic politics, calling the aid a “bad talking point” for Democrats and naming Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan who opposes unconditional military aid. “Because they don’t need it, and because why should we suffer the slings from lunatics like an El-Sayed when they don’t need it?” Trump said.

Neither the White House nor Netanyahu’s office answered requests for comment from Reuters or the BBC. Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot wrote on X that the security establishment was “learning about a change in the strategic relationship framework through the media.”

Netanyahu has publicly set the same goal, on a slower clock. In a May interview with CBS, cited by the BBC, he said he wanted to “draw down” U.S. financial support “to zero” over the next decade. “I want to start now,” he said.

The agreement on paper

The current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) covers fiscal years 2019 to 2028 and ends on Sept. 30, 2028. According to the Congressional Research Service, the United States pledged, “subject to congressional appropriation,” $38 billion: $33 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) grants and $5 billion for missile defense. That works out to about $3.3 billion in FMF plus $500 million for missile defense each year, the $3.8 billion figure that Trump rounded to $4 billion.

| Agreement | Years covered | Total pledged | What it pays for | |—|—|—|—| | 1998 “glide path” deal | FY1999–FY2008 | $26.7 billion, of which $21.3 billion military | Military aid rose as economic aid was phased out | | 2007 MOU | FY2009–FY2018 | $30 billion in FMF | Up to 26.3% could be spent in Israel | | 2016 MOU | FY2019–FY2028 | $38 billion ($33B FMF + $5B missile defense) | Spending in Israel phases out by FY2028 |

Sources: Congressional Research Service RL33222. Figures in current dollars.

An MOU is not a treaty. CRS notes that it is not legally binding, but the money is also set in law: Section 1273 of the FY2021 National Defense Authorization Act authorizes “not less than” $3.3 billion in FMF a year through 2028. Ending payments in December would mean Congress declining to appropriate the funds or changing that law, The War Zone noted. It estimated that almost $8 billion in anticipated MOU funding remains.

Where the money goes

Most FMF is spent at U.S. factories. The State Department counts 751 active Foreign Military Sales cases with Israel worth $39.2 billion as of April 2025. Big-ticket orders include 25 Boeing F-15IA fighters for $5.2 billion, with deliveries from 2031; four KC-46A tankers for $927 million; and 12 CH-53K heavy-lift helicopters for $2 billion. Israel also flies Lockheed Martin’s F-35I Adir.

Israel pays for many of these deals under cash-flow financing, which lets it sign contracts against expected future aid. CRS warns that if FMF ended, Israel would have to cover those payments with its own money or terminate contracts. FMF now covers about 14% of Israel’s defense budget, according to CRS, and Israel spent 8.8% of its GDP on defense in 2024.

Timeline

  • 2016: The current 10-year, $38 billion MOU is signed.
  • April 2024: Supplemental law P.L. 118-50 adds $3.5 billion in FMF and $4 billion for missile defense, plus $1.2 billion for the Iron Beam laser, pushing total U.S. aid to Israel in FY2024 to about $12.5 billion (CRS).
  • July 2026: A House amendment by Rep. Thomas Massie to cut $3.3 billion in security aid fails 314 to 104, with 103 Democrats in favor (BBC).
  • Oct. 27, 2026: Netanyahu’s bloc loses its governing majority in Israel’s election, setting up coalition talks.
  • Nov. 3, 2026: Trump announces the end of payments after this year; Democrats win both chambers of Congress.
  • Jan. 3, 2027: The new Congress is due to convene.
  • Sept. 30, 2028: The current MOU expires.

Analysis: why it matters

The money matters less to Israel’s balance sheet than to the structure of the alliance. A country that already spends as heavily on defense as Israel can find the cash to replace FMF. What is harder to replace is the multiyear certainty that lets Israel order fighters a decade ahead and pay for them in installments. A sudden stop would turn planned purchases into budget fights inside an Israeli government whose makeup is still being negotiated.

The announcement also hands the decision to Congress at an awkward moment. The incoming Democratic majorities will control the appropriations bills that carry FMF. Members who want to keep the MOU intact can keep funding it; members who want conditions on aid now have a president who says he no longer wants to pay it. Either way, the outcome will be decided by votes in the House and Senate, not by a phone interview.

For U.S. defense firms, the issue is predictability. An Israel that pays in cash may still buy American, as Trump says, but it could also choose to spend more of that money with its own defense industry. Watch for three signals: a written agreement between Washington and Jerusalem, language in the next foreign aid spending bill, and whether Israel restructures its pending F-15IA and KC-46A payments.

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