· · · ·

Uganda Starts Leaving Somalia After 20 Years: What Comes Next

Uganda has begun withdrawing troops from Somalia and plans a full exit by end-2027. Our timeline traces the funding fight and the risk of an al-Shabaab gain.

ByPeter
Row of Ugandan soldiers in camouflage at attention with rifles beside a Ugandan flag
Uganda People's Defence Forces soldiers stand in formation at the opening of an Eastern African Standby Force field training exercise in Djibouti, Nov. 29, 2009. Photo: U.S. military / Master Sgt. Carlotta Holley, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

KAMPALA, Nov. 2, 2026 — Uganda has begun withdrawing its troops from Somalia, ending nearly two decades as a mainstay of the African Union’s fight against al-Shabaab. Col. Chris Magezi, the army’s acting spokesperson, said Monday that the first cohort of soldiers serving under a bilateral deal with Mogadishu had already returned home and that the rest of that group would follow within days, the BBC reported.

The military said all Ugandan forces, including those in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), will leave by the close of 2027. In a statement quoted by DW, it said the exit “will mark the end of Uganda’s enduring 20-year peace and stabilization support operations in Somalia, permitting the Somali Armed Forces to assume full responsibility for security in the country.” About 4,500 Ugandan troops serve in AUSSOM and about 2,000 more under bilateral agreements, according to both outlets.

Army chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba announced the start of the pullout last week. “As we promised, we have started withdrawing UPDF from Somalia. After 20 years of a lot of blood and sacrifice, we are handing over security to our Somali brothers,” he wrote, as quoted by Uganda’s Daily Monitor.

Timeline: from first in to first out

DateEvent
2007Uganda becomes the first country to deploy under the AU mission, then called AMISOM.
2011The mission pushes al-Shabaab out of Mogadishu, according to the International Crisis Group.
2025The mission is reauthorized as AUSSOM and is down to about 12,000 troops, from over 22,000 a decade earlier.
Dec. 23, 2025The UN Security Council unanimously adopts Resolution 2809, extending AUSSOM to Dec. 31, 2026.
Early July 2026The U.S. tells the AU it will not back extending the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) beyond December.
July 2026Somalia, the AU and troop contributors meet in Kampala and endorse 18 to 24 more months of uninterrupted support.
September 2026Washington softens its position and offers a final 12 months of UNSOS support.
Oct. 30, 2026A first group of 109 Ugandan troops reportedly leaves Mogadishu, per the BBC.
January 2027The 12-month UNSOS countdown is due to begin.

The money behind the mission

The withdrawal follows a long fight over who pays. In its explanation of vote on Resolution 2809, the U.S. mission to the UN said Washington had given “nearly $1.6 billion to support troop-contributing countries for AMISOM and its successor missions,” plus “nearly $2 billion” in assessed contributions to UNSOS and its predecessor. It added that progress toward “the essential transfer of most security functions to Somalia has been elusive,” and that responsibility for fighting al-Shabaab and ISIS must shift “primarily to those who have the most at stake.”

That language previewed the decision that followed. The UN office supplies AU troops with food, water and fuel at nearly 50 bases across southern Somalia and runs a budget of nearly half a billion dollars, according to the International Crisis Group. A diplomatic note seen by Reuters and reported by CNBC Africa said the U.S. would support “a 12-month drawdown followed immediately by liquidation” of that office. A State Department spokesperson told Reuters that any timelines would be discussed at the Security Council in December.

The European Union has been the largest direct funder, giving almost €2.8 billion since 2007, according to a Congressional Research Service report on Somalia. CRS also notes the mission has been described as the world’s deadliest peace operation.

Analysis: a handover the numbers do not yet support

Uganda’s exit is one of the first concrete signs that the end of UN logistics support is reshaping the force on the ground. The army describes it as a handover, but the record suggests Somalia’s forces are not yet ready to fill the gap. CRS reports that a resurgent al-Shabaab has retaken territory, reversing government gains, and warns that ending UN support could create a security vacuum. U.S. airstrikes have risen sharply, with over 130 in 2025 and nearly 70 in the first half of 2026, which points to how much the fight still leans on outside firepower.

The order of the pullout matters. Uganda is withdrawing its bilateral troops first, a force Crisis Group says is stationed in and around Mogadishu. Somalia signed such bilateral deals with Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia so that their troops would stay after the AU mission left, according to the group. Crisis Group had argued that bilateral deals were the most practical fallback once UNSOS closed, and it singled out Uganda’s more than a dozen bases in Lower Shabelle as hard to hold without UN logistics. It named Qoryoley, a town surrounded by al-Shabaab, as at risk.

There is also a shift in tone. At an extraordinary summit of troop contributors in Kampala’s Munyonyo area earlier this year, President Yoweri Museveni said, “Somalia will not be abandoned. We have the capacity. Whether others pull out or not, we shall stand,” according to the Daily Monitor. Now his army has set a date to leave. Mogadishu says it has 14,000 troops available for operations, per Crisis Group, but the group cautions that they are generally less well trained and equipped than the AU soldiers they would replace.

What to watch

  • The Security Council’s December talks on AUSSOM’s mandate, which expires Dec. 31.
  • Whether Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya or Ethiopia announce their own drawdowns.
  • Al-Shabaab activity around Ugandan-held bases in Lower Shabelle as positions are handed over.

Sources

Additional sources

Related coverage

Related on Peter’s World

Recommended articles