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Americas Security Update Oct 26, 2026: Lula Wins, Cuba Grid, ELN

Cuba news today: Lula wins Brazil’s runoff as Bolsonaro seeks annulment, Cuba’s grid falls short and Colombia confirms 10 ELN dead.

ByPeter
Map of Latin America and the Caribbean: Americas Oct 26: Lula wins, Cuba grid, Colombia ELN strike
Places named in this report, Oct 26, 2026. The Tolemaida mark is approximate. Map: Peter's World; data: Natural Earth

Key Takeaways: 5 things to know

  1. Lula won a fourth term as Brazil’s president with 51.79% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 48.21%, according to the electoral court’s final count (see Brazil).
  2. Flávio Bolsonaro refused to accept the result and called for the election to be annulled, while Washington held back its customary congratulatory statement (see Brazil).
  3. Cuba’s grid was forecast to meet less than 36% of Monday’s peak demand, with 1,030 megawatts available against 2,900 megawatts of expected demand (see Cuba).
  4. Colombia’s President Abelardo de la Espriella said 10 National Liberation Army fighters died in the October 22 bombing in Cauca, up from nine reported earlier (see Colombia).
  5. Cuba heads into the UN General Assembly’s embargo debate on October 27-28 as US envoy Mike Waltz urges countries to vote no or abstain (see Cuba).
Report detailsMonday update · Data cutoff Oct 26, ~4:30 PM ETDetails
  • Publisher: Peter’s World War Room
  • Edition: Monday update
  • Coverage window: Oct 25, 2026, ~7:30 AM ET to Oct 26, 2026, ~4:30 PM ET
  • Data cutoff: Oct 26, 2026, ~4:30 PM ET
  • Times: ET; Havana and Caracas are on ET, Bogotá ET-1, Brasília and Buenos Aires ET+1
  • Style: Rev. 3
  • Sources: war.gov and US Southern Command feeds checked first, then official electoral and government sources, wires and regional outlets; government and party claims are attributed
Map of Latin America and the Caribbean: Americas Oct 26: Lula wins, Cuba grid, Colombia ELN strike. Marked: Havana: grid to meet under 36% of peak (capital); El Tambo: 10 ELN fighters killed (strike / attack); Tolemaida: exercise drills from Oct 30 (other reported event, approximate); Brasília: Lula wins runoff (capital); Caracas: school meals to 4 million (capital); Buenos Aires: Milei on weak indicators (capital). Data as of Oct 26, 2026.
Places named in this report, Oct 26, 2026. The Tolemaida mark is approximate. Map: Peter’s World; data: Natural Earth

Munitions Count: Oct 26

No official munitions count was released in this window.

Americas security news, October 26, 2026: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s runoff with 51.79% of valid votes, and Flávio Bolsonaro called for the result to be annulled.[1] Cuba’s grid was forecast to cover less than 36% of Monday’s peak demand, and Colombia raised the toll of its October 22 ELN bombing to 10.[2]

This follows yesterday’s Americas security update; see the War Room for the other theaters.

Cuba

The grid crisis deepened before this week’s UN vote. The Unión Eléctrica forecast 1,030 megawatts available for Monday’s evening peak against demand of 2,900 megawatts, a shortfall of 1,870 megawatts and a projected cut of 1,900 megawatts.[3] It said service was cut throughout Sunday and that Sunday’s peak cut reached 1,849 megawatts, after yesterday’s report noted the Antonio Guiteras plant had dropped off the grid.

Diplomacy now moves to New York. Cuba’s UN ambassador, Ernesto Soberón, said the General Assembly will take up the annual resolution against the US embargo on October 27 and 28, and he accused Washington of “blackmail” in lobbying for votes.[4] US Ambassador Mike Waltz has urged member states to vote no, or “at least then abstain,” and Havana’s government dismissed the CIA’s recruitment appeal as a sign of US desperation.[5] President Donald Trump said at a rally on October 23 that “we’ll take care of Cuba on our way back from Iran.”[6]

Venezuela

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, launching the Plan Venezuela Alimenta food program covered yesterday, ordered the state school-meal program expanded from 2.5 million to 4 million children a day.[7] She also told officials to extend the subsidized CLAP food boxes to 4 million families and said malnutrition among children under five stands at 1.5%, while nongovernmental groups have warned of a food-security crisis.[8]

Colombia

President Abelardo de la Espriella gave new details of Operation Onyx, the October 22 bombing in rural El Tambo, Cauca. He said 10 members of the National Liberation Army’s (ELN) José María Becerra front were killed, up from the nine reported in yesterday’s update, including the commanders known as “Marcos Pacífico” and “Ochenta” or “Murillo.”[9] He called it the hardest blow against the ELN in eight years and said troops seized seven rifles, a pistol and two grenades at a camp built for about 25 people.[10]

Security ties with Washington continue. US Southern Command said the Southern Vanguard 2027 exercise will begin in Colombia on November 2 with about 800 participants, including about 350 US troops and more than 400 Colombian soldiers.[11] Pre-exercise drills start October 30 with a simulated medical evacuation of mine casualties from the Tolemaida base to Bogotá.[12]

Brazil

Lula won the October 25 runoff with 64,256,232 votes, or 51.79% of valid votes, against 59,826,041 for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Superior Electoral Court’s final count. Turnout was 80.8% of 158.7 million registered voters, and the totals remain subject to change until certification.[13] He becomes the first president since 1985 to win after losing the first round, and his new term begins on January 5.[14]

The loser rejected the count. Bolsonaro called the result “inexplicable” and asked for it to be annulled, citing Justice Cristiano Zanin’s decision to extend voting nationwide by two hours. Both campaigns had asked for an extension, and electoral court president Kássio Nunes Marques said it did not change the outcome.[15] The State Department had a congratulatory statement drafted but was told to hold it and “assess” the situation, while Colombia, Chile and Peru congratulated Lula.[16] Trump told reporters on Monday that “it looked like another rigged election,” without giving evidence, and São Paulo’s stock exchange opened 15% lower before recovering slightly.[17]

Argentina

President Javier Milei admitted in a radio interview that economic indicators “are not evolving as positively as we expected,” and his government blamed an external shock as country risk hit 710 points this week.[18] A federal appeals court upheld the closure of a complaint over the use of public funds for his foreign trips, finding the lawyer who filed it had no standing.[19]

Domestic Affairs

Brazil’s dispute over the result is now the region’s main domestic test, building on the count above. Lula said in his victory speech that Brazil “will not accept being anyone’s backyard,” and his term will face a Congress with many Bolsonaro allies.[20] In Argentina, the admission of weaker growth comes as the campaign for the 2027 election begins.[21]

War Crimes and Civilian Harm

Allegations are attributed; findings are not established unless stated.

Not applicable: no new allegations of war crimes or civilian harm were reported in this theater in the window.

Statements by Military Leaders and Officials

Quotes
DateSpeakerRole/OrgQuoteContext/TopicSource
2026-10-25Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaPresident of Brazil“This, my fourth term, will be the best of any president in the history of this country”Victory speech in São Paulobbc.com [22]
2026-10-26Donald TrumpPresident of the United States“I didn’t take sides, but it looked like another rigged election”Remarks to reporters on Brazil's runoffbbc.com [23]
2026-10-25Abelardo de la EspriellaPresident of Colombia“No voy a decirles que con una sola operación termina la amenaza del ELN.”Statement on Operation Onyxnoticiascaracol.com [24]

In English, De la Espriella said he would not claim one operation ends the ELN threat. No on-record statement by a Latin American military commander was found for the window.

What to Watch (Assessment)

  • The UN General Assembly’s debate and vote on Cuba’s embargo resolution on October 27-28.
  • Whether the State Department releases its statement on Brazil’s election, and any legal challenge by Bolsonaro’s party.
  • Cuba’s evening grid cuts as forecasts stay near 1,900 megawatts.
  • Pre-exercise drills for Southern Vanguard 2027 in Colombia from October 30.

Seven lenses

Analysis

About the framework

Geography & Strategic Position

Brazil, South America’s largest country, returned a leader who says it “will not accept being anyone’s backyard,” while Colombia remains Washington’s closest security partner on the Pacific side (see Brazil and Colombia).[25]

Military & Security

The war.gov and Southern Command feeds showed no new US strike in Latin America in the window; the main US military item was the planned Colombia exercise (see Colombia).[26] Bogotá’s Cauca bombing shows it is again using air power against the ELN.

Alliances & Diplomatic Networks

Washington’s delay in recognizing Lula’s win contrasts with quick congratulations from right-leaning governments in Colombia, Chile and Peru, leaving the US position out of step with most of the hemisphere (see Brazil).[27]

Economic & Industrial Power

The market drop in São Paulo and Argentina’s country risk of 710 points show how political uncertainty weighs on the region’s two largest South American economies (see Brazil and Argentina).[28]

Technology & Critical Infrastructure

Cuba’s grid can now meet barely a third of evening demand, a constraint that shapes daily life on the island more than any diplomatic move (see Cuba).[29]

Domestic Politics & Information

Fraud claims by a losing candidate and the US president create a contested narrative around a count the electoral court has confirmed, a pattern Brazil saw in 2022 (see Brazil).[30]

Strategic Leverage & Outcomes

US leverage in the hemisphere rests on security partners such as Colombia, and a fourth Lula term limits its reach in South America’s largest economy, which matters for US trade and influence.[31] Assessment: the US recognition decision on Brazil and the UN Cuba vote are the week’s two tests of that leverage.

Strategic assessment

Relative advantage
Washington in Colombia, where exercises and joint operations continue.
Critical vulnerability
Cuba’s grid, now short of about two-thirds of peak demand.
Decisive uncertainty
Whether the United States recognizes Lula’s win.
Likely trajectory
A large UN majority for Cuba’s resolution, as in past years.
Strategic outcome
Not yet determinable; the Brazil recognition and the UN vote are the next tests.

Analysis by Peter’s World using the Seven Lenses framework. Numbered notes link to the footnotes at the end of this report. Scores, where shown, are judgments, not measurements.

Additional sources

Footnotes

  1. [1] Global Election Index (relaying Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court national results file), “Brazil runoff 2026: President”, https://electionindex.org/election/brazil-general-2026-r2/president. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Superior Electoral Court (TSE) totals, count finished Oct 25, 2026, 23:26 Brasília time; figures subject to change until certification.
  2. [2] CiberCuba, “The available electricity will not cover even 36% of the peak demand in Cuba this Monday”, https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-10-26-u1-e74-s27061-nid343855-electricidad-disponible-cubrira-ni-36-demanda-maxima. Published: Oct 26, 2026, 11:44 AM ET. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Relays the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) grid report.
  3. [3] CiberCuba, “The available electricity will not cover even 36% of the peak demand in Cuba this Monday”, https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-10-26-u1-e74-s27061-nid343855-electricidad-disponible-cubrira-ni-36-demanda-maxima. Published: Oct 26, 2026, 11:44 AM ET. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Relays the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) grid report.
  4. [25] BBC News, “Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback”, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckm23y3mg1yyo. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  5. [26] US Southern Command (southcom.mil), “U.S., Colombia Launch Exercise Southern Vanguard 2027”, https://www.southcom.mil/News/PressReleases/Article/4633374/us-colombia-launch-exercise-southern-vanguard-2027/. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Official press release.
  6. [27] Folha de S.Paulo (English edition), “Trump Administration Ordered Statement Recognizing Election Result to Be Held Back After Flávio Bolsonaro’s Claims”, https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/world/2026/10/trump-administration-ordered-statement-recognizing-election-result-to-be-held-back-after-flavio-bolsonaros-claims.shtml. Published: Oct 26, 2026, 4:29 PM (Brasília time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  7. [28] La Nación, “En el Gobierno debaten medidas de reactivación económica pero Milei se muestra inflexible”, https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/en-el-gobierno-debaten-medidas-de-reactivacion-economica-pero-milei-se-muestra-inflexible-nid25102026/. Published: Oct 25, 2026, 7:27 AM (Buenos Aires time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Spanish-language; summary in our words.
  8. [29] CiberCuba, “The available electricity will not cover even 36% of the peak demand in Cuba this Monday”, https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-10-26-u1-e74-s27061-nid343855-electricidad-disponible-cubrira-ni-36-demanda-maxima. Published: Oct 26, 2026, 11:44 AM ET. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Relays the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) grid report.
  9. [30] Folha de S.Paulo (English edition), “Trump Administration Ordered Statement Recognizing Election Result to Be Held Back After Flávio Bolsonaro’s Claims”, https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/world/2026/10/trump-administration-ordered-statement-recognizing-election-result-to-be-held-back-after-flavio-bolsonaros-claims.shtml. Published: Oct 26, 2026, 4:29 PM (Brasília time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  10. [31] BBC News, “Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback”, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckm23y3mg1yyo. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
Show 21 more sources
  1. [4] Prensa Latina, “Síntesis de Cuba”, https://www.prensa-latina.cu/2026/10/26/sintesis-de-cuba-601/. Published: Oct 26, 2026, 13:19 (Havana time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Cuban state news agency. Spanish-language; summary in our words.
  2. [5] SABC News, “US escalates pressure on Cuba ahead of UNGA vote”, https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/us-escalates-pressure-on-cuba-ahead-of-unga-vote/. Published: Oct 26, 2026, 18:59 SAST (12:59 PM ET). Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  3. [6] SABC News, “US escalates pressure on Cuba ahead of UNGA vote”, https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/us-escalates-pressure-on-cuba-ahead-of-unga-vote/. Published: Oct 26, 2026, 18:59 SAST (12:59 PM ET). Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  4. [7] El Nacional, “Delcy Rodríguez activó plan para “hambre cero” y dice que busca alimentar a cuatro millones de niños escolares”, https://www.elnacional.com/2026/10/delcy-rodriguez-activo-plan-para-hambre-cero-y-dice-que-busca-alimentar-a-cuatro-millones-de-ninos-escolares/. Published: Oct 25, 2026, 7:18 AM (Caracas time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Cites Rodríguez’s remarks as reported by EFE. Spanish-language; summary in our words.
  5. [8] El Nacional, “Delcy Rodríguez activó plan para “hambre cero” y dice que busca alimentar a cuatro millones de niños escolares”, https://www.elnacional.com/2026/10/delcy-rodriguez-activo-plan-para-hambre-cero-y-dice-que-busca-alimentar-a-cuatro-millones-de-ninos-escolares/. Published: Oct 25, 2026, 7:18 AM (Caracas time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Cites Rodríguez’s remarks as reported by EFE. Spanish-language; summary in our words.
  6. [9] El Tiempo, “Operación Ónix deja 10 integrantes del Eln neutralizados en el departamento del Cauca”, https://www.eltiempo.com/justicia/conflicto-y-narcotrafico/operacion-onix-deja-10-integrantes-del-eln-neutralizados-en-el-departamento-del-cauca-asi-lo-anuncio-el-presidente-abelardo-de-la-espriella-3596142. Published: Oct 25, 2026, 9:14 AM (Bogotá time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Relays President Abelardo de la Espriella’s statement. Spanish-language; summary in our words.
  7. [10] Noticias Caracol, “Operación Ónix: Abelardo de la Espriella confirma la baja de 10 integrantes del ELN en el Cauca”, https://www.noticiascaracol.com/colombia/de-la-espriella-entrego-detalles-del-operativo-en-el-cauca-que-dejo-10-integrantes-del-eln-muertos-rg10. Published: Oct 25, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Relays President Abelardo de la Espriella’s statement. Spanish-language; summary in our words.
  8. [11] US Southern Command (southcom.mil), “U.S., Colombia Launch Exercise Southern Vanguard 2027”, https://www.southcom.mil/News/PressReleases/Article/4633374/us-colombia-launch-exercise-southern-vanguard-2027/. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Official press release.
  9. [12] US Southern Command (southcom.mil), “U.S., Colombia Launch Exercise Southern Vanguard 2027”, https://www.southcom.mil/News/PressReleases/Article/4633374/us-colombia-launch-exercise-southern-vanguard-2027/. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Official press release.
  10. [13] Global Election Index (relaying Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court national results file), “Brazil runoff 2026: President”, https://electionindex.org/election/brazil-general-2026-r2/president. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Superior Electoral Court (TSE) totals, count finished Oct 25, 2026, 23:26 Brasília time; figures subject to change until certification.
  11. [14] BBC News, “Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback”, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckm23y3mg1yyo. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  12. [15] BBC News, “Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback”, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckm23y3mg1yyo. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  13. [16] Folha de S.Paulo (English edition), “Trump Administration Ordered Statement Recognizing Election Result to Be Held Back After Flávio Bolsonaro’s Claims”, https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/world/2026/10/trump-administration-ordered-statement-recognizing-election-result-to-be-held-back-after-flavio-bolsonaros-claims.shtml. Published: Oct 26, 2026, 4:29 PM (Brasília time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  14. [17] BBC News, “Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback”, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckm23y3mg1yyo. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  15. [18] La Nación, “En el Gobierno debaten medidas de reactivación económica pero Milei se muestra inflexible”, https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/en-el-gobierno-debaten-medidas-de-reactivacion-economica-pero-milei-se-muestra-inflexible-nid25102026/. Published: Oct 25, 2026, 7:27 AM (Buenos Aires time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Spanish-language; summary in our words.
  16. [19] Infobae, “La Cámara Federal porteña confirmó el archivo de una denuncia por los viajes de Javier Milei al exterior”, https://www.infobae.com/judiciales/2026/10/25/la-camara-federal-portena-confirmo-el-archivo-de-una-denuncia-por-los-viajes-de-javier-milei-al-exterior/. Published: Oct 25, 2026, 1:21 PM EST (site time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Spanish-language; summary in our words.
  17. [20] BBC News, “Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback”, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckm23y3mg1yyo. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  18. [21] La Nación, “En el Gobierno debaten medidas de reactivación económica pero Milei se muestra inflexible”, https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/en-el-gobierno-debaten-medidas-de-reactivacion-economica-pero-milei-se-muestra-inflexible-nid25102026/. Published: Oct 25, 2026, 7:27 AM (Buenos Aires time). Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Spanish-language; summary in our words.
  19. [22] BBC News, “Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback”, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckm23y3mg1yyo. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  20. [23] BBC News, “Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback”, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckm23y3mg1yyo. Published: Oct 26, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26.
  21. [24] Noticias Caracol, “Operación Ónix: Abelardo de la Espriella confirma la baja de 10 integrantes del ELN en el Cauca”, https://www.noticiascaracol.com/colombia/de-la-espriella-entrego-detalles-del-operativo-en-el-cauca-que-dejo-10-integrantes-del-eln-muertos-rg10. Published: Oct 25, 2026. Retrieved: 2026-10-26. Relays President Abelardo de la Espriella’s statement. Spanish-language; summary in our words.

Sources

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