Warsaw Security Forum 2026: What Leaders Said About Russia

WARSAW — Russia dominated the 2026 Warsaw Security Forum, held October 12–13 in the Polish capital and organized by the Casimir Pulaski Foundation.[1][2] NATO’s top commander publicly presented the alliance’s “Theory of Victory,” Poland’s prime minister called for tougher sanctions, and Ukraine’s leaders used the stage to press Washington after Russian strikes followed a U.S.-announced “energy ceasefire.”[3][4] The quotes below are verbatim from the sources cited; translations are those published by the source.

NATO and the United States

Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, U.S. Air Force, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) — address “The Theory of Victory: How To Achieve Military Success in Deterrence and Defence Against Russia?” and moderated Q&A with Prof. Katarzyna Pisarska, October 12.[1][3] He did not name Russia in the prepared address; he did in the Q&A.

“But if someone is foolish enough to attack us, we will fight. We will stop the attack and deny them the ability to achieve their objectives, whatever those may be. We will, in short, ensure any attack, against any Ally, proves utterly futile.”[3]

“Should the adversary choose to press the attack or commit his reserves, we will break the warfighting system engaged against us. This includes not just the attacking force itself, but anything and everything that supports, sustains, or controls that force.”[3]

“I do not assess that conflict is imminent or inevitable. It isn’t.”[3]

On sabotage and hybrid attacks in Europe, in the Q&A:

“That lets the Russians know (a) that we’re on to them. It lets them know that their network wasn’t as unattributable as they thought it was.”[3]

“…respond by increasing your contributions to the PURL program, or respond with a donation of air defense interceptors, and show that the Russian premise for their activity, is false and you’re only strengthening our resolve.”[3]

On Russia’s strikes on Ukraine’s energy system:

“That’s going to make for a very hard winter. I will also say it’s probably not going to work.”[3]

Poland

Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland — opening keynote, October 12.[4]

“No one wants escalation or war. We all dream of peace. The path to peace does not lie through weakness. The path to peace lies in stopping the aggressor with all available means and forces.”[4]

Breaking Defense reported that Tusk said Russia would seek to “dismantle the security architecture in Europe so that Russian dominance returns to the state it was before 1989. We have no doubt about this.”[4] He closed:

“Ukraine will not be broken or intimidated. Poland will not be broken or intimidated. Europe, NATO, and the entire free world will not be broken or intimidated. That message must go out today from every capital—from Warsaw to Washington.”[4]

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence — remarks at the forum, October 12, as published in English by Poland’s defence ministry:[1]

“We do not want to waste time. Poland remembers, especially from the time of the Second World War, when not everything was yet ready, that the only boundless thing was the bravery of the Polish soldier and everything else had limits…”[1]

Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine — video address to the forum, October 12. The text below is from the full English address as republished by Odessa Journal; the Ukrainian presidency also posted a report.[5]

“It was clear that Putin does not read Truth Social, and his ‘shahed’ drones follow a different set of instructions.”[5]

“But if Russia wants us to stop our long-range strikes against its oil refineries and oil exports, then Russia must stop its strikes against our energy system and critical infrastructure. And stop killing our people.”[5]

“We need American pressure on Russia. Not sanctions relief. Not concessions. But real pressure…”[5]

“Our intelligence services know that Russia is planning many aggressive hybrid operations against Europe – against different countries, against your countries.”[5]

Zelenskyy’s statements about Russian violations of the energy truce are his government’s claims. Peter’s World has not independently verified them.

Andrii Sybiha, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine — panel “What Comes After the Liberal World Order?”, October 13, as reported from the ministry’s press service:[2]

“In less than two years we’ve gone from ‘You don’t have the cards’ to ‘Don’t play your cards.’ This is an achievement.”[2]

“The future of Europe and the global security architecture is now being decided in Ukraine.”[2]

Lithuania and the Nordic-Baltic region

Mindaugas Sinkevičius, Prime Minister of Lithuania — panel on European security with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, October 12:[6]

“Strategies and plans are essential, but they are not what deters Russia.”[6]

“Given our geographical proximity to Russia, its ongoing war and our active support for Ukraine, our region understands and feels these threats acutely.”[6]

Norway was the forum’s partner country this year.[7] No verbatim Støre statement on Russia from the forum was found in the sources reviewed. No forum quote from an EU institution was found either.

Context

The forum opened the day after President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Peter’s World covered that claim in Energy Ceasefire Claim: Trump Says Deal, Kyiv Awaits Proof. Grynkewich described the Theory of Victory as a three-phase “block, blunt, and break” denial defense based on NATO’s agreed strategy, and he said it is not a plan “in the military sense of the word.”[3] For battlefield developments, see the Russia–Ukraine War Update — October 13, 2026. Sanctions background is in EU Sanctions 1,600 Russia Arms Firms in Largest List Wave.

Transcripts and recordings

• Grynkewich, full speech and Q&A, transcript: American Rhetoric, “Our Theory of Victory: Address to the Warsaw Security Forum.” The text is transcribed as delivered and vetted against the audio. It is not an official NATO page.[3]
• Grynkewich, official video: Warsaw Security Forum YouTube channel, “WSF2026 (DAY1) 12.10: Theory of Victory”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgEQAwmakBU
• Zelenskyy, full address text: Odessa Journal republication.[5] The official presidential report is at president.gov.ua.[8]
• Tusk keynote: No full transcript was found. Only quoted excerpts are available, via Breaking Defense.[4]

Additional sources

• Lithuanian government, Sinkevičius at WSF.[6]
• Government of Norway, Norway–Poland strategic partnership.[7]
• Warsaw Security Forum: https://warsawsecurityforum.org

Footnotes (8)

1. Ministry of National Defence (Poland), “Warsaw Security Forum on the ‘theory of victory’, security, the future of NATO and the war in Ukraine,” Oct. 12, 2026. https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/warsaw-security-forum-on-the-theory-of-victory-security-the-future-of-nato-and-the-war-in-ukraine
2. Ukrainska Pravda, “Ukraine’s foreign minister: In less than two years, we’ve gone from ‘You don’t have the cards’ to ‘Don’t play your cards’,” Oct. 13, 2026. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/13/8057794/
3. American Rhetoric, “Alexus Grynkewich: Our Theory of Victory, Address to the Warsaw Security Forum,” delivered Oct. 12, 2026. https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/alexusgrynkewichtheoryofvictoryNATO.htm
4. Breaking Defense, “At Warsaw Security Forum, Poland’s Tusk raises alarm over ‘real threat’ from Russia,” Oct. 12, 2026. https://breakingdefense.com/2026/10/at-warsaw-security-forum-polands-tusk-raises-alarm-over-real-threat-from-russia/
5. Odessa Journal, “Address by the President of Ukraine to the Participants of the Warsaw Security Forum,” Oct. 12, 2026. https://odessa-journal.com/public/address-by-the-president-of-ukraine-to-the-participants-of-the-warsaw-security-forum
6. Government of the Republic of Lithuania, “Prime Minister at Warsaw Security Forum: Our Region Has a Responsibility to Actively Shape European Security,” Oct. 12, 2026. https://lrv.lt/en/news/prime-minister-at-warsaw-security-forum-our-region-has-a-responsibility-to-actively-shape-european-security-0w8l/
7. Regjeringen.no, “Norge og Polen signerte erklæring om strategisk partnerskap,” Oct. 12, 2026. https://www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/norge-og-polen-signerte-erklaring-om-strategisk-partnerskap/id3176988/
8. Office of the President of Ukraine, “Europe and the United States Must Increase Pressure on Russia…” https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/yevropa-ta-ssha-mayut-posilyuvati-tisk-na-rosiyu-shob-stvori-106861 (page timed out on fetch; title seen in search only)

Edition details

Publisher: Peter’s World | Edition: October 13, 2026 | Coverage window: Oct. 12–13, 2026 | Data cutoff: Oct. 13, 2026, 6:00 PM ET | Times ET | Style: Rev. 3 | Sources: American Rhetoric transcript, WSF YouTube, gov.pl, lrv.lt, Breaking Defense, Ukrainska Pravda, Odessa Journal