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Indo-Pacific Weekly Roundup: Keen Sword, PLA Pressure, Pacific Aid

Our Indo-Pacific weekly roundup: Keen Sword drills in Japan, PLA activity reported by Taiwan, a new Marine missile unit and Pacific aid.

ByPeter
Map graphic of East Asia with China, Taiwan and Japan highlighted and markers at key points
Graphic: Peter's World; map data: Natural Earth (public domain)

This Indo-Pacific weekly roundup covers the six Indo-Pacific daily reports Peter’s World published from Oct. 18 to Oct. 25, 2026. No Indo-Pacific edition ran on Oct. 21 or Oct. 22. The roundup gathers the week’s main threads, then adds our analysis. Each fact appears once, with its source, and the full daily list is at the end.

The week in brief

Keen Sword 27 and missiles near Taiwan

Japan and the United States opened Keen Sword 27 on Ishigaki Island, with about 56,000 troops from both countries training through Oct. 29, Stars and Stripes reported. The drill includes Japan’s first off-base deployment of its Type 25 anti-ship missile and a US anti-ship system on Yonaguni, the Japanese island closest to Taiwan, according to The Japan Times. The Department of War reported that the US Marine Corps had formed its first medium missile battalion, armed with launchers that each fire two Naval Strike Missiles.

Chinese activity around Taiwan

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reports varied widely through the week. It counted 14 Chinese military aircraft and seven navy ships on Oct. 20, then no military aircraft and one navy ship by Oct. 24. Its Oct. 25 report showed five navy ships and eight official ships. A Chinese coast guard ship entered restricted waters near Taiwan’s Pratas Islands, starting a standoff Taiwan’s Coast Guard said was continuing, The Straits Times reported. Five Chinese coast guard ships also followed eight Japanese coast guard vessels near Penghu as they sheltered from a typhoon, Focus Taiwan reported.

South China Sea: Sabina Shoal and the Sierra Madre

China’s military said it sent forces to track the USS Charleston near Sabina Shoal and accused the US warship of having “illegally intruded” in the Spratly Islands, according to the same Straits Times report. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said any use of force against the BRP Sierra Madre, the grounded navy ship at Second Thomas Shoal, would be an act of war, after a report that China weighed removing it. Manila summoned China’s ambassador over his remarks, but President Ferdinand Marcos does not want him expelled, his office said, The Philippine Star reported.

China launched a Long March 8A rocket from Hainan on Oct. 25, and Philippine space officials said both debris zones lay in Philippine waters.

The Korean Peninsula

North Korea vowed “tit-for-tat” action against South Korean and Japanese drills with US forces, The Korea Herald reported. South Korea again proposed military talks with the North on Oct. 23 to fix the land border and lower the risk of accidental clashes. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited the Chinese border city of Dandong on Oct. 24 with senior Chinese official Wang Huning, and said North Korea is “inspired” by China’s success, North Korean state media reported, according to NK News.

Diplomacy and alliances

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Quad leaders will probably meet in December, citing joint work on undersea monitoring that protects cables, in an interview with India Today. The State Department announced more than $44 million to fight criminal networks in the Pacific Islands. A proposed Trump-Putin-Xi summit on Ukraine could take place at next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, The Japan Times reported.

In Okinawa, Japanese prosecutors indicted a US Marine on robbery and murder charges on Oct. 25 over a woman’s death in a Naha hotel.

What changed this week

Analysis (Peter’s World’s view): The allied missile network near Taiwan moved from plans to positions. Anti-ship launchers on Yonaguni, a new Marine missile battalion and this year’s Keen Sword drill put real firepower inside the first island chain. China’s visible military activity around Taiwan dropped and rose again during the drill, while its coast guard kept up pressure at Pratas, Penghu and Second Thomas Shoal. The pressure came mainly from law-enforcement ships, which are harder to answer with military force.

Why it matters

Analysis (Peter’s World’s view): The Sierra Madre is the most likely flashpoint for a direct US treaty question. Manila has now said in public that force against the ship would be an act of war, which raises the stakes of any Chinese move there. At the same time, Kim’s visit to Dandong and the summit talk around APEC show Beijing positioning itself at the center of both the Korean and the Ukraine files. That gives China more ways to trade on one issue for gains on another.

What to watch next week

  • Oct. 29: Keen Sword 27 ends. Watch Chinese ship and aircraft counts in Taiwan’s daily reports as the drill winds down.
  • Whether the Pratas standoff ends or spreads.
  • Any Chinese move toward the BRP Sierra Madre, and Manila’s response.
  • North Korea’s promised “tit-for-tat” action and whether it answers Seoul’s talks offer.

This week’s daily reports

For every report in this theater, see the Taiwan and China news hub or the War Room dashboard.

Sources

Additional sources

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