Russian Threats Against NATO, in Words and in Writing

Brussels, Oct. 3, 2026. Between Sept. 28 and Oct. 1, Russian embassies in Belgium, the United Kingdom and Ireland, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and President Vladimir Putin warned of a Russian military response to any NATO action against Kaliningrad or Russian territory. Reuters reported a note to NATO with a similar message. A senior European defence official told Reuters it was the “first time since (the) Cold War that Russia is threatening us like this” (Reuters). This report catalogues Russian statements and documents on NATO since 2021, with NATO’s answers and Russia’s stated reasons.

Timeline of statements and documents

Date	Statement or document	Speaker or issuer	Source
Dec. 17, 2021	Draft agreement with NATO members: no enlargement, limits on deployments	Russian foreign ministry	MFA text
Nov. 19, 2024	Basic Principles of nuclear deterrence (Decree 991)	Putin	Kremlin
Dec. 17–19, 2025	Defence Board remarks on NATO; Putin on a Kaliningrad blockade	Belousov, Putin	Kremlin; TASS
Jan. 9, 2026	Oreshnik strike near Lviv; Kallas calls it a warning	Russian MoD; Kallas	EUobserver
Feb. 5, 2026	New START expiry statement	Foreign ministry	TASS
Mar. 6, 2026	Finland “beginning to threaten” Russia if it hosts nuclear weapons	Peskov	Reuters/ST
Apr. 6–16, 2026	Baltic warning; drone-site lists; Article 51 claim	Zakharova, MoD, Shoigu	Ukrainska Pravda; TASS (MoD); TASS (Shoigu)
June 24–29, 2026	Baltic “countermeasures”; response to Finland’s law	Ryabkov, Zakharova	TASS; AA
Sept. 11, 2026	Lithuania and nuclear hosting	Peskov, Medvedev	Meduza; TASS
Sept. 28–30, 2026	Embassy statements; note to NATO; ministry comment	Embassies; Zakharova	TASS; Reuters
Sept. 30, 2026	“Fundamental documents”; Rutte replies	Peskov; Rutte	TASS; NATO
Oct. 1, 2026	Valdai Club remarks on Kaliningrad	Putin	Kremlin

Nuclear signalling

The Kaliningrad warnings. The Russian Embassy in Belgium said it had warned NATO’s International Secretariat and Belgium’s foreign ministry that “this reckless and irresponsible approach sharply increases the risks of a direct military confrontation with our country.” (TASS). On Sept. 29 the embassy in Ireland said: “There should be no mistake — Russia would be ready to use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, to defend its territory if NATO countries try to isolate the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country.” It also cited “the likelihood of Russia using preemptive strikes against decision-making centers in the Alliance countries already at an early stage of the conflict” (TASS). The U.K. embassy said: “Any British or NATO military action against Russian territory would be met with a response using all means at Russia’s disposal, including nuclear weapons.” (TASS). TASS says the U.K. statement responded to media reports. All three are TASS translations.

Reuters said a document sent to NATO stated: “Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should NATO countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country.” It also referred to “Russian strikes against decision-making centers in the alliance’s member states right from the outset” (Reuters). Peskov said on Sept. 30: “It is only natural that our diplomats are trying to remind the hotheads in Europe of our fundamental documents on the matter.” (TASS). Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was quoted by Reuters: “If Europe attacks Russia, it will be a completely different sort of war – a very short war.” (the ministry’s page, mid.ru, blocked automated access; Reuters’ rendering used).

Putin at Valdai, Oct. 1. Asked whether Russia was trying to scare Europe, Putin said: “We are not trying to scare anyone.” He described the ministry’s statement and letters as not intimidation, but “it is a response to attempts to intimidate us.” On Kaliningrad: “If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation – in this case, Kaliningrad, although it could potentially involve other territories as well – the question of Russia using all the weapons at its disposal would inevitably and immediately arise.” And: “neither that letter nor the Foreign Ministry’s statement mentions the use of nuclear weapons. They speak, as I have just put it, of employing all the forces and means available to our country.” (Kremlin English text; BBC and AP also reported the remarks).

Analysis: the accounts differ. Putin says the letter and ministry statement do not mention nuclear weapons; Reuters and the embassy statements, as quoted above, do. The note has not been published, so the difference cannot be resolved from public text.

Other nuclear statements. On Feb. 5 the foreign ministry said “the parties to the New START are no longer bound by any obligations or symmetrical declarations in the context of the treaty, including its core provisions” (TASS). On May 7 Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council, wrote that “even Germany’s coming close to nuclear weapons is an unquestionable casus belli” (TASS).

Oreshnik. Russia’s defence ministry said an Oreshnik unit took up combat duty in Belarus on Dec. 30, 2025 (TASS). After a Jan. 9 strike near Lviv, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said: “Russia’s reported use of an Oreshnik missile is a clear escalation against Ukraine, and meant as a warning to Europe and to the US” (EUobserver). Russian intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin said the West read it as a warning (paraphrase; Military Affairs).

Threats to specific NATO members

Lithuania and Kaliningrad. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told NZZ in May: “We have to show the Russians that we’re capable of penetrating the small fortress they’ve built in Kaliningrad. NATO has the capability, if necessary, to raze Russian air defences and missile bases there to the ground.” Peskov replied: “The statement verges on insanity” (Reuters). On Sept. 11, as Lithuania moved to lift its constitutional ban on nuclear weapons, Peskov told Channel One: “Obviously, these weapons will not be aimed westward: they will be aimed eastward, that is, at us” (Meduza). Medvedev wrote about Lithuania: “Even if there is a scorched field there, no other countries will fight for them.” “But Lithuania will disappear from the face of the earth” (TASS). Parliament voted 99–13 on Sept. 22 in the first of three votes (Meduza). RIA Novosti columnist Alexander Nosovich wrote: “Russia can even afford to forgo deploying ground troops. Just missiles with the appropriate warheads”. The agency removed the column, saying it “did not correspond to the editorial board’s views, editorial policy or the official policy of the Russian Federation” (Ynet).

Finland and the Baltic states. Peskov, Mar. 6: “The fact is that by deploying nuclear weapons on its territory, Finland is beginning to threaten us. And if Finland threatens us, we take appropriate measures.” (Reuters). After Finland’s law was signed, Zakharova said: “Such measures, let no one doubt, will be taken in a timely and effective manner” (Anadolu). On Apr. 6 she said the Baltic states had been warned over Ukrainian drones crossing their airspace: “These countries have been given an appropriate warning. If the regimes of these countries have any sense, they will heed it. If not, they will have to deal with a response.” (Ukrainska Pravda, citing Interfax). Latvia and Estonia rejected the claim. Deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said on June 24: “If it extends to the development of our neighboring territories in this way (and the Baltic region as a whole is our focus), countermeasures will follow.” (TASS).

Germany. On long-range weapons, the Russian Embassy in Berlin said: “the locations of such weapons will inevitably become legitimate military targets for Russia” (TASS, citing Izvestia). Asked on Sept. 1 about Germany’s actions over the Leipzig airport drone, Putin attributed them mostly to domestic politics (paraphrase) and said: “You want proof? Here you are; they have planted it.” (Kremlin). He did not say in that passage what “it” referred to; German authorities attribute the incident to Russia.

Poland. Poland said a Russian Mi-8 helicopter entered its airspace from Kaliningrad on Sept. 23 for 42 seconds. The Polish army said “the nature of the incident indicates that Russia is once again testing the readiness of our air defence”; Moscow did not comment immediately (BBC). On Sept. 25 Putin said of Europe generally: “we are not preparing for hostilities with Europe. We have no such plans, no reasons and, most importantly, no real motives for aggravating the situation with Europe” (Kremlin; tracker).

Written documents and doctrine

2021 drafts. On Dec. 17, 2021 Russia published a draft agreement with NATO members. Article 6: “All member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization commit themselves to refrain from any further enlargement of NATO, including the accession of Ukraine as well as other States.” Article 7: “shall not conduct any military activity on the territory of Ukraine as well as other States in the Eastern Europe, in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia.” (MFA print copy). Putin said on Dec. 21 that Russia had sent drafts to Washington and NATO: “We need long-term legally binding guarantees.” He added that if the West continued its line, “we will take appropriate military-technical reciprocal measures and will have a tough response to their unfriendly steps.” (Kremlin). Russia’s stated rationale was NATO’s eastward expansion. NATO replied in writing on Jan. 26, 2022; Jens Stoltenberg said: “every nation has the right to choose its own path.” (NATO). I did not open the companion U.S.–Russia draft treaty text.

Strategy documents. Russia’s 2021 National Security Strategy, paragraph 35, lists among military threats “to build up the military infrastructure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization near the Russian borders” (unofficial translation of unknown origin). Defence Minister Andrei Belousov told the Dec. 17, 2025 Board: “NATO is preparing for a potential military confrontation with Russia, aiming to achieve full readiness by the late 2030s.” (Kremlin English).

Nuclear doctrine, Nov. 2024. Putin said on Sept. 25, 2024 that the update was supposed to regard “aggression against Russia from any non-nuclear state but involving or supported by any nuclear state as their joint attack against the Russian Federation” (Kremlin). Decree 991 (Russian text; Naval War College translation) says in paragraph 5 that nuclear weapons are a means of deterrence, “the use of which is a last resort and a forced measure”. Paragraph 18 reserves use “in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or the Republic of Belarus as members of the Union State with the use of conventional weapons, posing a critical threat to their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity”. Paragraph 20 says the president decides. Paragraph 21: “The President of the Russian Federation may, if necessary, inform the military-political leadership of other states and/or international organizations that the Russian Federation is ready to deploy nuclear weapons”. The translators render the Russian verb as “deploy”; the original reads “применить”, which usually means “use”.

Analysis: the published doctrine does not name Kaliningrad or a blockade. Peskov did not say which “fundamental documents” he meant. I found no 2026 revision of the doctrine, the National Security Strategy or the Foreign Policy Concept, but absence in my searches is not proof none exists.

Hybrid-activity warnings and allegations

Russia denies running a sabotage campaign. In May Putin responded to an AP investigation by demanding that AP “name one proven fact” (NPR/AP). German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said on Sept. 1: “Taken together, the police investigations, the pattern and intelligence findings prove a Russian responsibility for the attempted attack at Leipzig airport.” (NPR/AP). Poland’s Donald Tusk warned on Sept. 17: “There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction” (AP). These are government assessments; the sources opened do not publish the underlying evidence.

At Valdai Putin cited NATO exercises in the Baltic (paraphrase) and called attempts to detain Russian ships a violation, adding: “we will act symmetrically – perhaps in the Baltic and the Atlantic, or perhaps in the Pacific” (Kremlin). State TV host Vladimir Solovyov said on Sept. 4: “We spit on NATO, bomb the hell out of it” (Newsweek’s translation). Newsweek noted his views do not necessarily reflect Kremlin thinking.

NATO and Western responses

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Sept. 30 he could not disclose the Russian letter. Describing NATO’s reaction, he said: “we are defensive alliance, and stop the nuclear threat. This is absolutely not called for and not helpful.” He added: “We will defend every inch of NATO territory, every square kilometre, square mile.” (NATO transcript). NATO’s reply, seen by Reuters, said none of its “exercises or activities pose a threat to the territory of the Russian Federation”; it urged Russia: “We urge the Russian Federation to refrain from increasingly reckless behaviour towards the Allies and to cease its irresponsible nuclear rhetoric” (Reuters). Hart said: “We strongly denounce the threat of force, including any irresponsible nuclear rhetoric” (AP). Tracker: Rutte, Sept. 30; Rutte, Oct. 1.

On June 18 NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group said “the strategic nuclear forces of the Alliance remain the supreme guarantee of Allied security” (NATO). Ryabkov replied: “The idea that NATO is a defensive alliance can no longer mislead anyone.” (TASS). The Ankara Summit Declaration of July 8 states an aim “To counter the long-term threat Russia poses to Euro-Atlantic security and stability” (NATO).

What is verified and what is claimed

• Verified from texts we read: Putin’s Valdai remarks, the 2024 doctrine, the 2021 draft, NATO transcripts.
• Reported, not published: the note to NATO and NATO’s reply. Reuters says it saw both; Putin’s account of the note differs.
• Russian claim, no public support found: that NATO is preparing a blockade of Kaliningrad. NATO says it is not targeting the exclave.
• Russian rationale (claim): Putin says “They said that NATO would not expand eastwards – and immediately they broke that promise and started doing so.” (Kremlin).
• Not found or dropped: a verifiable 2026 statement by Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin; a 2026 broadcast by Dmitry Kiselyov; a 2026 NATO statement by Defence Minister Belousov; mid.ru originals (blocked), so Zakharova’s Suwalki-corridor remarks are not quoted.

Related coverage

• Russia Warns NATO of Nuclear Response Over Kaliningrad
• Special Report: Russian Hybrid Attacks and NATO
• Poland Scrambles Jets After Russian Mi-8 Breaches Airspace
• Putin’s St Petersburg Answers: Full Transcript
• Russia-Ukraine War Latest: Diplomacy, Air War and NATO
• Quote Tracker: Putin, Lavrov and MFA entries

Sources

• Kremlin.ru, Valdai Club, Oct. 1, 2026
• Reuters via Yahoo, Sept. 30, 2026
• AP via Los Angeles Times, Sept. 30, 2026
• TASS, Irish embassy statement
• NATO, Rutte transcript
• Kremlin.ru, nuclear doctrine decree (Russian)
• Naval War College, doctrine translation
• Russian MFA draft agreement, Dec. 17, 2021
• NATO, Jan. 26, 2022 press conference
• NATO, Ankara Summit Declaration