Last updated: October 27, 2026, 10:30 a.m. ET. This tracker is updated after each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee began a two-day meeting on October 27–28, 2026, according to the Fed’s official FOMC calendar. It enters the meeting with the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, after a quarter-point increase on September 16, the first rate hike in this tracker’s two-year window. This page lists every decision since November 2024, with votes and dissents taken from the Fed’s own statements.
What to watch on October 28
Recent statements, including the September 16 statement, were released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time, and the Fed posts each statement on the calendar page. This is not a projections meeting; the next Summary of Economic Projections comes with the December 8–9 meeting.
- The rate decision. Whether the committee holds at 3.75%–4.00% or moves again after September’s hike.
- The vote count. September’s decision was 12–0. Earlier in 2026, the April and July meetings each drew three or more dissents.
- The inflation sentence. In September the committee wrote that “inflation remains elevated” and that the hike “will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.”
- Geopolitical language. The June and July statements cited uncertainty owing “in part, to the conflict in the Middle East”; September referred more broadly to “geopolitical developments.”
2026 FOMC meeting schedule
The Fed lists eight meetings for 2026. Meetings marked with an asterisk come with a Summary of Economic Projections, including the “dot plot.”
- January 27–28: held
- March 17–18*: held
- April 28–29: held
- June 16–17*: held
- July 28–29: held
- September 15–16*: raised 1/4 point
- October 27–28: in progress
- December 8–9*: upcoming
Every FOMC decision since November 2024
Each row links to the Fed’s statement. A “bp” is a basis point, or one-hundredth of a percentage point.
| Decision date | Target range | Change | Vote | Dissents named in the statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | 3.75%–4.00% | Raise 25 bp | 12–0 | None |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold | 9–3 | Hammack, Kashkari, Logan (preferred a 1/4-point hike) |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold | 12–0 | None |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold | 8–4 | Miran (1/4-point cut); Hammack, Kashkari, Logan (backed the hold, opposed the easing bias) |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold | 11–1 | Miran (preferred a 1/4-point cut) |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3.50%–3.75% | Hold | 10–2 | Miran, Waller (preferred a 1/4-point cut) |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 3.50%–3.75% | Cut 25 bp | 9–3 | Miran (1/2-point cut); Goolsbee, Schmid (no change) |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 3.75%–4.00% | Cut 25 bp | 10–2 | Miran (1/2-point cut); Schmid (no change) |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 4.00%–4.25% | Cut 25 bp | 11–1 | Miran (preferred a 1/2-point cut) |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold | 9–2 | Bowman, Waller (preferred a 1/4-point cut); Kugler absent |
| Jun 18, 2025 | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold | Unanimous | None |
| May 7, 2025 | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold | Unanimous | None |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold | 11–1 | Waller (backed the rate hold; preferred to keep the balance-sheet runoff pace) |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 4.25%–4.50% | Hold | Unanimous | None |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 4.25%–4.50% | Cut 25 bp | 11–1 | Hammack (preferred no change) |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 4.50%–4.75% | Cut 25 bp | Unanimous | None |
From November 2024 through December 2025, the committee cut by a total of 1.25 percentage points. It then held for six meetings in 2026 before the September hike, according to the statements above.
What Fed officials projected in September
The September 16 Summary of Economic Projections shows the median of participants’ projections, not a committee decision.
| Median projection | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Longer run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal funds rate | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| PCE inflation | 3.7 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Core PCE inflation | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | – |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Real GDP growth | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
The 2026 rate median of 4.1% compares with 3.8% in the June projections, so the median participant now sees a higher path for rates this year.
Inflation and jobs: the latest official data
- Consumer prices (CPI): up 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, and 2.6% excluding food and energy, based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics index (not seasonally adjusted).
- PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred gauge: up 3.4% in the year to August 2026, and 3.0% excluding food and energy, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on September 30. September figures are due on October 29.
- Unemployment: 4.2% in September 2026, up from 4.1% in July and August, according to BLS data.
Analysis: why the Fed’s rate matters beyond Wall Street
This section is Peter’s World’s view, based on the official figures above.
The dollar and allies. A Fed that raises rates while other central banks hold tends to support the dollar. That makes U.S. imports cheaper but raises the cost of dollar debt for emerging economies, including several on the front lines of current conflicts.
Trade. The Fed’s June and July statements pointed to “supply shocks” in energy and other sectors. Tariffs can add to the same price pressure. Higher rates cannot fix a supply shock, so trade policy and monetary policy now pull on the same inflation number from different directions.
Defense budgets. Higher rates raise the interest cost of federal debt, which competes with defense and other spending in every budget cycle. A higher-for-longer path, as the September projections suggest, would keep that pressure on.
Markets. Mortgage, auto and credit card rates key off expectations for the fed funds rate. The vote count and statement wording often matter as much as the decision itself, because they signal the next move.
Sources
- Federal Reserve: Meeting calendars, statements, and minutes (2021–2026)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve: Implementation Note, September 16, 2026 (interest on reserve balances 3.90%; primary credit rate 4.0%)
- Federal Reserve: Summary of Economic Projections tables, September 16, 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: CPI-U, all items
- Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: Unemployment rate
Additional sources
Related coverage
By Peter. This report was prepared with AI assistance and checked against the official sources listed above.
