Brazil Runoff Set: Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula in First Round
Flávio Bolsonaro took about 47% to Lula’s 45.2% in Brazil’s first round, forcing a presidential runoff between the two candidates on Oct. 25.
BRASÍLIA — Brazil will hold a presidential runoff on Oct. 25 after right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round on Sunday, Oct. 4, with neither man reaching the 50 percent needed to win outright.
Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party (PL), took about 47.0 percent of valid votes, against 45.2 percent for Lula of the Workers’ Party (PT), the BBC reported. Superior Electoral Court figures put Bolsonaro’s total at roughly 56.1 million votes and Lula’s at about 53.9 million.
The outcome defied the final surveys. On the eve of the vote, Quaest had Lula at 46 percent to Bolsonaro’s 45, and Datafolha showed Lula ahead 45 to 42, O Globo reported.
The remaining candidates trailed far behind: Augusto Cury of Avante with about 2.9 percent, Renan Santos of Missão with about 2.2 percent and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD with about 2.2 percent. Around 21 percent of registered voters abstained.
The PL also had a strong night in other races. According to the BBC, the party won more governorships, Senate seats and federal deputy seats than any other in the results available Sunday. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro was elected to the Senate.
What the two candidates said
Bolsonaro, 45, said he was “very happy” with the result and confident of winning in three weeks. “I am very happy with the real possibility that, three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer by choosing a modern government,” he said, according to AFP.
Lula, 80, called the result “unexpected” and admitted he had believed he would win in the first round. “The game is about to start. We are in extra time,” he said. Lula is seeking a fourth term, having won in 2002, 2006 and 2022.
A family name on the ballot
Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after his 2022 election defeat and is barred from running. Flávio has pledged, if elected, to grant amnesty to his father and to those convicted over the Jan. 8, 2023, riots in Brasília.
The BBC identified crime, the economy, corruption and national sovereignty as the campaign’s central issues. Bolsonaro has promised to designate major criminal gangs as terrorist organizations, build maximum-security prisons, impose a ceiling on public debt, cut spending, revise welfare programs and expand critical-minerals development.
Lula has campaigned on the Bolsa Família cash-transfer program, reforms aimed at the finances of organized crime and his government’s record on reducing Amazon deforestation.
Scandal and accusations of interference
The campaign has been shadowed by a scandal involving banker Daniel Vorcaro. After recordings surfaced, Bolsonaro acknowledged asking Vorcaro to finance a biographical film. Police have also alleged that Vorcaro sought help from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, which Moraes denies.
Lula has accused the United States of trying to influence the election, a charge Washington has denied. On Sunday, the head of the electoral court said there was no evidence of foreign interference.
What it means: Bolsonaro enters the runoff with the lead, a stronger congressional base and a pool of eliminated right-leaning candidates whose voters may lean his way. The BBC noted that a Bolsonaro victory would likely bring Brazil into the U.S.-led “Shield of the Americas” anti-narcotics coalition, a shift that would align Latin America’s largest country more closely with Washington’s security agenda.
Sources
- The Boston Report: Brazil Election Runoff Bolsonaro Lula
- BBC: Brazil election goes to run-off as Flávio Bolsonaro wins first round
- Agência Brasil: Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula head for runoff
