flydubai FZ1073: What the Flight Data Shows and What It Does Not
Flightradar24 data puts flydubai FZ1073 84 km from Muwaffaq Salti Air Base at its closest. Officials name no target. Here is what is and is not established.
October 4, 2026 — flydubai FZ1073, a Boeing 737 MAX 8 bound from Dubai to Tel Aviv, made an emergency landing at Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, at 06:45 UTC on 30 September after a steep descent and a fight in the cockpit. On 3 October, UAE Attorney General Hamad Saif Al Shamsi said the co-pilot “had attempted to carry out a terrorist act,” according to AFP. No official has announced a motive or a target. A theory on social media holds that the aim was the U.S. presence at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The public evidence does not establish that, and it does not show the aircraft heading for the base at the end.
Editor’s note: distances, bearings and terrain figures below are Peter’s World’s own calculations from Flightradar24 data and public maps. They are not official findings. The suspect has not been named by UAE officials, and Peter’s World does not name him. He is presumed innocent, and no charges have been made public.
What officials have said
- flydubai said in its newsroom statements that “an altercation occurred in the flight deck,” that on-duty flydubai crew travelling on the flight secured the aircraft, and that “the underlying reasons and motives behind this event are unknown.” It urged all parties “to refrain from premature speculation.”
- Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry said on 1 October that a preliminary investigation, with a UAE security team, found the co-pilot assaulted the captain, leaving both injured, as reported by Al Arabiya. It stated no motive.
- UAE Attorney General Hamad Saif Al Shamsi, quoted by the state news agency WAM and relayed by AFP on 3 October, said the co-pilot attacked the captain with the emergency axe and tried to take control of the aircraft. Motive and any links were not disclosed.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the suspect had undergone “Islamist radical indoctrination” and tried to crash the plane, and, as quoted by ABC News, that Israel is investigating “whether he was sent.” He also said it was too early to say whether Iran was involved.
Reports that the co-pilot intended to crash in Israel, including a Tel Aviv building or Ben Gurion Airport, come from anonymous sources cited by media including ABC News, Channel 12 and Corriere della Sera. No named official has said it on the record.
What the flight data shows
Flightradar24 published granular ADS-B data for the flight. All times are UTC.
- 03:05: takeoff from Dubai, climb to 34,000 feet (Flightradar24).
- 05:21: first sign of descent from 34,000 feet. By 05:22:39 the data show a low of 16,625 feet, a brief climb to about 21,700 feet and a second descent. Ground speed peaked at 598 knots at 05:22:36. The aircraft was near 15,000 feet by 05:24:29, as the Associated Press reported.
- 05:28 and 05:35: transponder code 7700 (general emergency), then 7500 (unlawful interference), per Flightradar24 and AP. The codes are not in the downloadable data, and at least one outlet (Corriere della Sera, citing unnamed sources) gives 05:31 and 05:38.
- 05:24 to 05:42: about 18 minutes on a north-northwest track at roughly 14,000 to 15,500 feet.
- 05:41 to 05:46: the track entered Jordan, reached its northernmost point (31.18°N) at 05:42, reversed, and left Jordan at 05:46. Peter’s World’s calculation puts it 4 minutes 41 seconds inside, at most about 12 km past the border.
- 05:44: Tabuk air traffic control received a distress call, according to the Tabuk airport statement as reported by Khaleej Times and Al Jazeera.
- 06:00 to 06:45: the aircraft turned south, then southwest, and landed at Tabuk. Data after 06:13 are sparse. The Aviation Herald reported the aircraft “received substantial damage.”
The Muwaffaq Salti theory
Israeli computer scientist Yaniv Erlich posted the hypothesis on X, as reported by JFeed on 1 October. According to JFeed, he argued that an incident at cruising altitude over remote desert made little sense as a random suicide crash or hijacking, and suggested the aim was a “mini 9/11” against Americans at the base. JFeed wrote that “flight tracking data and official statements so far do not support that conclusion, and no investigative body has linked the attack to any target.”
A second argument came from an X user, @marinemom2025, on 3 October. The user posted four Flightradar24 track screenshots labelled 6/27, 7/30, 8/20 and 9/30 and argued the route has increasingly followed a mountain ridge since July. The author asked “who was issuing or approving these flight plans after June, and why did the routing change?” and wrote, verbatim:
“I’m not claiming the historical routes prove intent. They don’t.”
Peter’s World did not reproduce those screenshots and could not independently reproduce the historical tracks, because free Flightradar24 history is limited to seven days. In our reading, each screenshot shows the flight crossing Jordan to reach Israel, which JFeed describes as a normal Dubai–Tel Aviv routing. We have not verified the screenshots.
What the data supports. The aircraft came within 84 km of the base at 05:42:23 UTC and was at about 15,000 feet. The track lay on a bearing close to the base’s for roughly ten minutes (about 318° to 333° against 320° to 322°, between 05:26 and 05:36).
What it does not support. The aircraft reversed about 85 km short of the base and flew away from it. Peter’s World sampled public elevation data along the 30 September track and found ground at 535 to 715 metres above sea level, with the aircraft roughly 12,000 to 13,650 feet above ground. Our samples show flat desert plateau and no ridge being followed. That says nothing about the earlier flights in the screenshots, which we could not test. JFeed reports that no investigative body has linked the attack to any target, flydubai said motives are unknown, and the UAE has not disclosed one.
Analysis: The reversal at 84 km is the central fact for the theory. A flight continuing toward the base would be expected to keep closing the distance. This one turned away, and a distress call followed at 05:44 and a landing at Tabuk. At the same time, the north-northwest leg also lay within about 20 to 35 degrees of the bearing to Tel Aviv (about 295° to 303°), so heading alone cannot tell the two destinations apart. Neither reading is established. The data cannot show who controlled the aircraft, or what air traffic controllers instructed, at each moment.
Unresolved questions include why the aircraft flew about 18 minutes north-northwest before reversing, what air traffic control told the crew (Corriere della Sera, citing unnamed sources, reported that Saudi controllers asked the flight to turn back from Jordan; no official has confirmed this), and what flight plan was filed. The flight plan has not been made public. The Aviationist reported in January 2026 that U.S. F-15E and A-10 aircraft were deployed at the base, but Peter’s World found no source on what was there on 30 September.
Aircraft and route questions
The aircraft was A6-FKF, a Boeing 737-8 MAX delivered in December 2022, per Flightradar24. Flightradar24’s flight history for FZ1073 lists three different registrations on three consecutive days: A6-FMM on 28 September, A6-FNB on 29 September and A6-FKF on 30 September. No source describes this as unusual, and rotating aircraft on a flight number is routine in airline operations. No source explains the 30 September aircraft assignment, and Peter’s World could not determine whether a same-day change occurred.
What is not known
- Motive and target: UAE officials have announced neither. The UAE Attorney General said the investigation continues.
- Charges: Peter’s World found none. The suspect is reported to be in UAE custody.
- Recorders: no cockpit voice recorder or flight data recorder findings have been released, and no preliminary investigation report has been published.
- Anonymous-source reports: the suspect’s background and reported intent rest on unnamed sources and are not official findings.
Sources
- flydubai Newsroom: Updates on FZ 1073 DXB-TLV on 30 September 2026
- Flightradar24 Blog: Flydubai flight to Tel Aviv diverts to Tabuk after pilot attack
- Associated Press via Seattle Times: Inside FlyDubai’s 4-hour ordeal
- AFP via Al-Monitor: UAE investigators say flydubai co-pilot was planning ‘terrorist act’
- The Aviation Herald: Flydubai B38M near Tabuk on Sep 30th 2026, fight in the cockpit
- JFeed: Israeli Scientist Links Flydubai Attack to U.S. Base in Jordan, but Evidence Falls Short
