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Geopolitical Deals Tracker: Trade, Arms, Energy and Peace Deals

Tracker of big trade, arms, energy, minerals and peace deals that shape geopolitics, with status, value only if official, and sources.

  • 20deals tracked
  • 7categories
  • Oct 11, 2026last updated
Open the trackerHow to read a deal

What this hub is for

Governments now bargain through tariff schedules, arms sales, energy supply, mineral frameworks, sanctions licenses and peace proposals. This hub lists the big ones in one table so you can see what was agreed, who the parties are, how far each deal has gone and where the official text is. Entries are drawn from official sources first; where only press reporting exists, the row says so.

Status and value are reported as the source states them. The “why it matters” sentence is labeled Peter’s World analysis. Last updated Oct 11, 2026.

Deals tracker

Showing 20 of 20 deals

  • Russia–Ukraine "energy ceasefire" claim

    Disputed
    PartiesUnited States; Russia; UkraineDiplomatic / peace dealsEnergyCeasefire proposal
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisWith Kyiv saying it had no information about it and no Russian confirmation reported, there is no agreed text to monitor yet.

  • US–Russia oil and petroleum supply statement

    Announced
    PartiesUnited States; RussiaEnergySanctions & financeEnergy supply understanding
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisThe Kremlin readout confirms only a willingness to supply oil and petroleum products and gives no volumes, so there is no official Russian text matching terms announced separately by the US side.

  • Australia Tomahawk capability development (possible sale)

    Announced
    PartiesUnited States; AustraliaDefense & armsArms sale notification
    Value$300 million (estimated total cost)
    AnalysisThe notice describes mission-planning systems and support rather than missiles, so it signals capability development, not a missile transfer.

  • UAE APKWS II guidance sections (possible sale)

    Announced
    PartiesUnited States; United Arab EmiratesDefense & armsArms sale notification
    Value$1.041 billion (estimated total cost)
    AnalysisA notification is a possible sale, not a signed contract, so final quantities, value and delivery dates can differ.

  • US–China "30-for-30" tariff framework

    Announced
    PartiesUnited States; ChinaTrade & tariffsTariff-reduction framework
    ValueAbout $30 billion of goods on each side (2024 trade values)
    AnalysisThe terms of reference say tariff cuts will follow each side's domestic legal processes, so enforcement is still ahead.

  • US–Saudi Arabia F-35 sale (possible sale)

    Announced
    PartiesUnited States; Saudi ArabiaDefense & armsArms sale notification
    Value$24.3 billion (estimated total cost)
    AnalysisThe notice covers 48 aircraft and support, the largest dollar figure among the arms notices tracked here, and it follows a pre-contract step in the sales process.

  • US–Lithuania critical minerals framework (MOU)

    Signed
    PartiesUnited States; LithuaniaCritical minerals & techMemorandum of understanding
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisSecretary Rubio said the two countries would identify priority projects and mobilize financing within six months, which gives a date to check delivery.

  • US–Colombia critical minerals framework and civil nuclear MOU

    Signed
    PartiesUnited States; ColombiaCritical minerals & techFramework and MOU
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisThe minerals framework commits both governments to identify and finance projects within six months of signing, a testable commitment.

  • EU–US trade framework enters into force

    In force
    PartiesEuropean Union; United StatesTrade & tariffsTariff framework
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisThe EU rules include a suspension mechanism, a sunset in 2029 and an end-2026 deadline on US steel and aluminium derivative tariffs, which gives Brussels ways to respond if the US does not follow through.

  • US–Iran memorandum of understanding (Hormuz and nuclear)

    Collapsed
    PartiesUnited States; IranDiplomatic / peace dealsEnergyMemorandum of understanding
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisThe memorandum tied Strait of Hormuz transit to a 60-day window and, per Al Jazeera, fell apart over the transit route, so shipping enforcement was the weak point.

  • US–India critical minerals framework

    Signed
    PartiesUnited States; IndiaCritical minerals & techFramework
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisIndia's foreign minister said it covers mining, processing, recycling and investment, so it spans the supply chain rather than only mining.

  • US–China Boards of Trade and Investment chartered

    Announced
    PartiesUnited States; ChinaTrade & tariffsInvestment & infrastructureTrade and investment mechanism
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisStanding government-to-government boards turn a one-off truce into a managed process, so durability depends on whether they keep producing decisions.

  • US–EU strategic partnership on critical minerals (MOU)

    Signed
    PartiesUnited States; European UnionCritical minerals & techMemorandum of understanding
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisEU Trade Commissioner Šefčovič said the real test will be turning the MOU into concrete projects, so delivery is the item to track.

  • US–India interim trade framework

    Announced
    PartiesUnited States; IndiaTrade & tariffsTariff framework
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisThe White House fact sheet lowers the US reciprocal tariff on India from 25% to 18% and says the sides will work toward an interim agreement, so the terms depend on that step.

  • Gaza 20-point plan and Board of Peace

    In force
    PartiesUnited States; Israel; Hamas; UN Security CouncilDiplomatic / peace dealsPeace plan and governance body
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisThe plan was endorsed in UN Security Council Resolution 2803 and the Board of Peace exists, but Al Jazeera reports implementation has stalled over Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal.

  • Japan–Philippines acquisition and cross-servicing agreement

    Signed
    PartiesJapan; PhilippinesDefense & armsDefense logistics pact
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisIt sets procedures for exchanging supplies and services such as fuel, food, transport and ammunition support, which matters for joint operations.

  • US–Saudi Strategic Defense Agreement

    Signed
    PartiesUnited States; Saudi ArabiaDefense & armsInvestment & infrastructureDefense agreement
    ValueAlmost $1 trillion in Saudi investment commitments (White House figure; a commitment, not delivered investment)
    AnalysisThe White House pairs defense commitments with investment pledges, so the pledge figure needs separate tracking against actual projects.

  • US–China trade and economic deal (Busan)

    In force
    PartiesUnited States; ChinaTrade & tariffsCritical minerals & techTrade truce
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisThe fact sheet pairs US tariff cuts with a Chinese suspension of its Oct 9, 2025 rare-earth export controls, linking two forms of leverage in one bargain.

  • US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil

    In force
    PartiesUnited States; RussiaSanctions & financeEnergySanctions designation
    ValueNot disclosed
    AnalysisThe designations hit Russia's two largest oil companies, and the license for talks on selling Lukoil's foreign assets has been extended repeatedly, so its Oct 22, 2026 expiry is a checkpoint.

  • US–Japan agreement: $550 billion investment commitment

    In force
    PartiesUnited States; JapanInvestment & infrastructureTrade & tariffsInvestment and tariff agreement
    Value$550 billion (stated commitment in the executive order)
    AnalysisThe order says the US government selects the projects, which makes project selection and funding the items to track. This entry is just outside the 12-month window and is kept because the investments are ongoing.
  • Announced
  • Signed
  • In force
  • Disputed
  • Collapsed

How to read a deal: the Seven Lenses

Use the same four questions on every row. They apply our Seven Lenses of Geopolitical Power, which separates facts, inference and forecast.

  • Who gains leverage? Lens 7 and Lens 3: who can coerce or bargain better after the deal, and who has alternatives.
  • What are the dependencies? Lenses 1, 4 and 5: which routes, inputs, technologies or financing each side still needs from the other.
  • Who enforces it? Lenses 2, 3 and 6: what happens if a party breaks terms, and whether domestic politics can reverse it.
  • How durable is it? All lenses over time: sunset dates, expiry deadlines, review clauses and the response of outside actors.

Deals to watch: dated checkpoints

Only dates that appear in an official source are listed.

  • Oct 22, 2026: OFAC General License 131J, which allows negotiations and contingent contracts for the sale of Lukoil International GmbH, expires. It does not authorize closing a sale. OFAC FAQ 1225
  • Oct 29, 2026: OFAC General License 128C, covering maintenance and wind-down at certain Lukoil retail stations outside Russia, expires. OFAC FAQ 1225
  • Nov 10, 2026: Per the November 2025 White House fact sheet, the US suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports and certain Section 301 exclusions run until Nov 10, 2026. Later announcements may change this; check the White House and USTR. White House fact sheet, Nov 1, 2025
  • Dec 31, 2026: The European Commission page says the US must bring steel and aluminium derivative tariffs into line with the 15% ceiling by end-2026, or the EU can suspend concessions. European Commission
  • Mar 8, 2027: Six months after the Sep 8, 2026 signing: the US–Colombia minerals framework commits both governments to identify and finance projects within six months (date is our calculation). State Department release

Frequently asked questions

What counts as a big deal here?

An agreement, framework, sale notification, sanctions action or peace proposal between governments that changes trade, security, energy, technology or financing between states in a way that is reported by an official source. Routine contracts between companies are not included.

Why does the value column often say Not disclosed?

We print a value only when an official source states one, such as a State Department arms-sale notice or a White House fact sheet. Tariff rates, frameworks and memoranda often carry no official dollar figure, so we do not estimate one.

What is the difference between Announced, Signed and In force?

Announced means a government has described the deal or notified a possible sale but no final binding text is confirmed. Signed means a signing is documented. In force means the terms have taken effect or been implemented. Disputed means the parties give conflicting accounts, and Collapsed means the deal is reported to have ended.

Is an arms sale notification the same as a sale?

No. A State Department notification tells Congress about a possible sale. Contracts and deliveries follow later, and the final quantities and cost can differ.

How is this page updated, and how do I report a mistake?

Each entry is checked against its linked source and the page shows an update date. If a source changes or a deal collapses, we change the status and keep the entry. Corrections can be sent through our contact page.

Sources and method

Methodology: what counts, how status is updated

What counts as a big deal. A government-to-government agreement, framework, sale notification, sanctions action or peace proposal with a stated effect on trade, security, energy, technology or finance between states.

Inclusion rules. Roughly the last 12 months; an official source is required, except for disputed or unconfirmed claims, which are labeled and carry press links only. One entry may carry several categories.

Status. Announced, Signed, In force, Disputed or Collapsed, as the sources show. We change status when a source shows a change and keep collapsed deals in the table.

Value. Printed only when an official source states it; otherwise Not disclosed. Commitments and notification ceilings are not delivered spending.

Updated Oct 11, 2026. Every source link was checked on that date; links that blocked our automated requests (403, 504 or timeouts) are marked in the row, and their text was read through a fetch tool or a search-engine copy.

All sources (27)

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