Hormuz Ship Attacks Hit Nine in October as Freight Rates Spike
UKMTO logs nine attacks so far in October, half of September’s total, as Gulf-to-China tanker rates hit a record $1.3 million a day.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ — Attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz have accelerated sharply in the first week of October, even as oil flows through the waterway approach pre-war levels, according to maritime security data and shipping analysts.
UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has reported nine attacks in the waterway so far this month, half the total it reported for all of September across the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf combined, Bloomberg reported. September’s figure was itself boosted by four assaults in the final two days of the month. Bloomberg attributed the recent attacks to Iran.
Latest incidents
On October 6, Oman’s Defense Ministry said it rescued 10 crew members from the commercial vessel On Peace, which caught fire after being attacked; ship-tracking data show the vessel is an oil tanker, Bloomberg reported. The same day, 12 crew members aboard a Panama-flagged tanker were injured by an unknown projectile while crossing the strait, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said, according to Al Jazeera.
Most tankers now transit through a corridor near the coast of Oman, generally with their tracking signals switched off, and rely on U.S. military protection, according to Bloomberg and CNBC.
Two sides, two claims about control
Iranian and U.S. officials gave opposing accounts of who controls the strait. On October 7, Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said: “The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the armed forces have full control over it. This situation will continue until Iran’s legitimate demands are met,” Iran International reported. He said Iranian forces would block what he called unauthorized routes.
Hours earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Athens that the strait was open, that oil flows had returned to nearly pre-war levels and that Iran had “lost complete control” of the waterway, according to Iran International and Al Jazeera.
What the flow data show
The volume figures lean toward recovery. Gulf oil flows excluding Iran reached more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, cited by Al Jazeera. Top commodity traders at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London this week put Middle East flows at about 80 percent of pre-war levels, Bloomberg reported. Iran’s own exports are a different story: Iran International reported that Iranian oil exports fell to zero in September under the U.S. naval blockade.
Liquefied natural gas shipments have recovered more slowly because LNG moves on a smaller fleet of specialized carriers, Bloomberg said.
The cost of crossing has surged. The rate to carry oil from inside the Persian Gulf to China rose to a record $1.3 million a day on October 5, according to Baltic Exchange data cited by Bloomberg, compared with an average close to $60,000 a day last year.
Brent crude rose 0.64 percent to $101.23 a barrel on October 7, CNBC reported, after two Houthi attacks on Saudi airports added to supply concerns.
The diplomatic backdrop
The escalation comes with U.S.-Iran talks stalled. Vice President JD Vance told Reuters that any deal to reopen the strait and end the war would require Iran to reduce its ability to enrich uranium, not merely offer assurances. Tehran’s last proposal, presented at the UN General Assembly in September and rejected by President Donald Trump, called for an end to fighting on all fronts, the lifting of the U.S. blockade and sanctions and the release of frozen assets, with Hormuz reopening after seven days, according to Al Jazeera.
“Iran does not need to stop every vessel; it needs the maritime industry to believe that any vessel could be next,” Dimitris Maniatis, chief executive of the risk firm Marisks, wrote in a note quoted by Bloomberg.
Analysis: Shipping executives told Bloomberg it is not yet clear whether the new wave of attacks will reduce volumes. Previous waves caused brief dips that were offset in later days. The record freight rates suggest the more immediate effect is on cost and on how many shipowners are willing to make the crossing.
Sources
- ThePrint/Bloomberg: Iran ramps up ship attacks in Hormuz
- Iran International: Hormuz to stay closed until demands met, IRGC adviser says
- Al Jazeera: US sets new demands for Iran deal
- CNBC: Rubio says Iran passed up ‘multiple’ chances for nuclear deal
