Bab al-Mandab Fight: Who Holds Perim Island and Why It Matters

Yemen’s internationally recognised government says its forces now hold Perim Island and the shore around the Bab al-Mandab strait. The Houthis say they repelled the attack and still control the strait and the island they call Mayun. Both accounts are claims. AFP, which reported both on October 10, said the warring parties’ statements were impossible to verify independently.

What happened around the Bab al-Mandab strait

The fighting is part of a government counteroffensive announced last week. AFP reported that it followed a Houthi push that seized Yemen’s entire western coastline, and that the civil war reignited in July after four years of relative calm. Asharq Al-Awsat, a pan-Arab daily, said the operation, named “Dawn of Yemen,” entered its fifth day on Friday, October 9, with Saudi-led coalition air support.

Sources: CTP-ISW Iran Update, Oct 9; Asharq Al-Awsat, Oct 9; Al Arabiya, Oct 9; AFP via Business Recorder, Oct 10. Casualty and strike figures come from the parties and are unverified.

The Riyadh airport attacks belong in this story because the Houthis are fighting Saudi Arabia and the Saudi-backed government at once, and AFP reported that Saudi air power is supporting the government’s coastal operation.

Two accounts of who holds the strait

The public record does not yet settle who controls what. The same government camp described full control on Friday and an unfinished advance on Saturday.

Sources: Al Arabiya, Asharq Al-Awsat, CTP-ISW and AFP as cited above.

Perim, the English name used by Al Arabiya and CTP-ISW, is called Mayun or Mayyun by AFP and Asharq Al-Awsat. They are the same island. The gap between Friday’s and Saturday’s government accounts could reflect fast-moving front lines, different units, or early overstatement. The published reports do not say which.

Why Perim Island and al Aradi matter

Al Arabiya describes Perim as lying at the entrance to the strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. CTP-ISW assessed that Houthi positions on the island put them in range to use tactical weapons, such as tactical drones, against ships in the waterway. It said al Aradi, about 16 kilometres from the centre of the strait, would let the Houthis use a broader range of weapons, including artillery.

CTP-ISW also drew a limit. Government control of those two places denies the Houthis key positions but “does not limit” their ability to target shipping from elsewhere along the coast, it said, naming the Hanish Islands and the area near Mokha. Asharq Al-Awsat’s field reports describe a push on the al-Wazi’iyah front that could pave the way toward Mokha, which would extend the offensive up that coast.

What the strait carries

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) tracks oil moving through the world’s chokepoints. Its table shows how sharply the Bab al-Mandab’s traffic fell after the Houthis began attacking ships in late 2023, and where the oil went instead.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (data through the first half of 2025, before the July 2026 reignition of Yemen’s war).

The EIA also reported that the three Red Sea routes together, the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline and the Bab al-Mandab, carried about 11% of seaborne-traded oil in 2023 and about 8% of worldwide liquefied natural gas. Its table shows LNG flows through the strait at 4.2 billion cubic feet a day in 2023 and zero in 2024 and the first half of 2025. A voyage from the Arabian Sea to Europe around the Cape of Good Hope is about 15 days longer, nearly twice as long, than the route through the strait and Suez, the EIA said, which raises cost and delay.

One caution applies to every number above. The EIA series ends in the first half of 2025, before the July 2026 reignition of the war. This article found no published 2026 transit count for the strait, so it makes no claim about current volumes. For scale, the same table shows Hormuz carrying about five times the Bab al-Mandab’s flow. Our Strait of Hormuz explainer covers that chokepoint, and our guide to global trade metrics explains how analysts measure chokepoint dependence.

The human cost, without the headlines

AFP, citing UN data, reported that more than 200,000 people have been displaced since July. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), quoted by Asharq Al-Awsat, said its mobile clinics in Aden and Lahj had held 775 consultations since September 15 and diagnosed 20 children with severe acute malnutrition. It warned of rising cholera risk, and said 70% of the patients its clinics treat are women and children.

Combat casualty numbers come only from the parties. AFP’s figure of at least 63 dead in 24 hours rests on military sources from both sides, and Asharq Al-Awsat’s claim that 1,370 Houthi fighters were “neutralised” comes from a government spokesman. Neither number is independently confirmed.

Why it matters: shipping risk is about options

This section is Peter’s World analysis based on the sources cited in this article. Forecasts are judgments, not facts.

The first lesson is about evidence. With both sides claiming the strait, the most reliable signal in the coming days will probably not be a statement. It will be behaviour: whether independent geolocated imagery confirms who sits on Perim, whether wires such as AFP drop their caveats, and whether shipping advisories change.

The second lesson is that holding the island lowers a threat without ending it. CTP-ISW’s own assessment is that the Houthis keep other launch areas along the coast. Insurers and charterers price risk on what they think can still reach a ship, so a government flag on Perim may not bring lines back quickly.

The third is how this chokepoint stacks with Hormuz. If shipping avoids both, the Cape of Good Hope is the fallback. EIA data already showed the Cape carrying more oil than the Bab al-Mandab in 2024. In our judgment, a second chokepoint under pressure reduces the slack that traders could otherwise use, and any escalation at Hormuz would hit a system already operating on its longest route.

Finally, Saudi Arabia is both the government’s backer and a Houthi target. Attacks on Saudi airports show the coastal fight is tied to a wider campaign, which makes a quick local settlement less likely.

What to watch next

• Independent confirmation of control of Perim and the al Aradi shore from geolocated imagery or wire reports
• Any change in UK Maritime Trade Operations advisories for the southern Red Sea
• Further Houthi strikes on Saudi airports and oil sites
• The fight for Taiz, which CTP-ISW says the Houthis effectively encircled on October 6
• Whether government forces move up the coast toward Mokha

For the daily picture across the region, see the Middle East War Update for October 10 in our War Room, the earlier report on the Saudi coalition strikes on 82 Houthi targets, and our Iran news hub.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bab al-Mandab strait?

It is the narrow passage between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, according to the EIA.

Who controls Perim Island right now?

It is disputed. Yemeni government sources told Al Arabiya and Asharq Al-Awsat on October 9 that they held it. On October 10 government military sources told AFP that Mayun Island remained in Houthi hands, and the Houthis said they control it. CTP-ISW reported the capture as reported by anti-Houthi sources and geolocated footage.

Why does the strait matter to global trade?

In 2023 it carried about 9.3 million barrels of oil a day, the EIA reported. That fell to about 4.1 million in 2024 as ships rerouted around Africa.

Sources

• CTP-ISW: Iran Update, October 9, 2026
• AFP via Business Recorder: Yemen govt forces say advancing against Houthis around key waterway
• Asharq Al-Awsat: Operation ‘Dawn of Yemen’ clears Bab al-Mandab and its islands of remaining Houthi forces
• Al Arabiya: Yemeni forces complete control over Bab al-Mandeb, Perim Island
• U.S. Energy Information Administration: World Oil Transit Chokepoints

Related coverage

• Strait of Hormuz Explained: Oil Flows, Control and the 2026 Crisis
• Saudi Coalition Hits 82 Houthi Targets After Deadly Airport Attacks
• Yemen Government Opens Offensive to Retake Houthi Areas