A new Wall Street Journal report highlights a troubling development: Chinese destroyers have been repeatedly transiting the narrow waters near Amami-Oshima, a Japanese island strategically positioned between the East China Sea and the Pacific.
Japanese surveillance has recorded at least 10 Chinese naval transits in 2026, compared with zero in 2025 and 15 in all of 2024. This isn’t simply about ships passing through international waters. The location matters. The channel is narrow, strategically important, and sits along the First Island Chain—the geographic barrier that China must navigate if it wants to project naval power deeper into the Western Pacific.
And Japan is taking notice.
Tokyo increasingly sees itself surrounded by a deteriorating security environment involving China, Russia and North Korea. China is expanding its naval capabilities and operating farther into the Western Pacific. Russia has increased military activity around Japan. North Korea continues developing missiles and nuclear capabilities.
Japan’s response is historic.
Tokyo is abandoning decades of postwar assumptions about defense. Japan has increased defense spending to approximately 2% of GDP, is expanding its missile and drone capabilities, increasing stockpiles, strengthening its southwestern islands and preparing for the possibility of a prolonged conflict. Japan has also requested a record $56 billion defense budget for the next fiscal year.
This creates an important strategic paradox for Beijing.
China says Japan’s military buildup represents a return to militarism. But China’s growing military presence around Japan is one of the very reasons Japan is rearming.
China pressures Japan → Japan strengthens its military → China points to Japan’s buildup as proof of a threat → China increases military pressure.
That is the classic security dilemma—and it can become extremely dangerous.
The biggest question isn’t whether China intends to start a war tomorrow. There is no evidence that these naval transits automatically mean war is imminent.
The bigger issue is normalization.
If Chinese warships repeatedly operate around Japan, eventually yesterday’s extraordinary military activity becomes today’s routine. Every transit gathers intelligence, tests Japanese surveillance and response procedures, and demonstrates China’s ability to operate in waters increasingly important to Japan’s national defense.
And Japan isn’t alone.
The U.S.-Japan alliance remains the central pillar of deterrence in the region, while cooperation between Japan, the United States and South Korea is expanding.
The danger is that a collision, miscalculation or confrontation at sea could turn what is currently strategic competition into a crisis.
Asia is entering a new era.
Japan is rearming.
China is expanding its naval reach.
Russia is increasing pressure around Japan.
North Korea is developing more sophisticated weapons.
And the United States is being forced to balance commitments across the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East.
The question isn’t whether the balance of power in Asia is changing.
It already is.
The real question is whether deterrence will remain strong enough to prevent the next confrontation from becoming something much worse.
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The Indo-Pacific is becoming the world’s most consequential strategic theater—and Japan may be on the front line.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
